GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Still Wintery

12 February 2012

Still Wintery

Clouds snuck into the region last night, and they were a little bit heavier than I was expecting. This caused for the temperatures to not fall as low as I was expecting, but nonetheless the wind is making it feel a bit cooler outside than it actually is. We’re going to see a fairly calm day in the region today as an area of high pressure begins to slide into the region, but the eastern half of the region is still going to have to deal with some lake effect snow today. Our next system will arrive as a weakening trough, and this will make it into the region on Monday night/Tuesday and we’ll be seeing some snow from this, but not a whole lot in terms of accumulations.

Surface area of high pressure sliding to the south of the region this morning will work in keeping the weather in the region calm for the bulk of the day today. We’re going to watch as the clouds in the western half of the region begin to diminish this afternoon, allowing for temperatures to be a bit warmer today, but still a little below normal. The eastern half of the region however is going to be a little too far away from that high to cease the lake effect this morning, however I am expecting that by this evening and overnight the lake effect snow will taper off and we’ll just go with a few lingering flurries in the eastern half of the region. With the clear skies tonight and the winds actually a tad bit lighter, I am going to lower the overnight lows once again and we’ll probably near 10-degrees in the western half of the region once again tonight. Areas with lighter winds will see the coolest temperatures, areas where it is gusty won’t. The eastern half of the region is going to have a hard time getting rid of those clouds this evening, so for you guys the temperatures won’t be that low tonight.

Tomorrow, that area of high pressure will be dominating the regional weather for the most part. Clouds will hang around the eastern half of the region tomorrow, but the skies will remain clear in the western half of the region during the day tomorrow. However, this clearing will not last long as we’re going to watch our next system pull into the region and introduce some more snow showers into the region once again.

Tomorrow night, look for increasing clouds in a uniform pattern from the west to the east as the next system nears the area. Snow showers will also begin to develop from the west to east.

Tomorrow night and Tuesday morning we’re going to watch a weakening upper level trough move into the region behind the surface high pressure. The high will provide some moisture and advection, allowing for that trough to produce some snow. However, the annoying part of this could-be-simple forecast will be the temperatures. Temperatures on Monday night will bottom out in the mid 20’s which will support a little snow accumulation, however temperatures on Tuesday will reach the mid 30’s which is going to prevent snow accumulation from really taking place in the region. Also, with the upper level trough weakening as it moves towards the region, also complicates things a little bit. For now though, I didn’t give anybody any snow fall totals because I am really not expecting that accumulations will happen that much - mainly under an inch at best for right now.

The system will clear out of the western half of the region somewhat quickly...but not so much for the eastern half of the region as another, yet weaker, lake effect snow event could be developing and this is going to be something that I am going to be keeping an eye on. Snow showers accompanying this event will be light and scattered.

We’re then going to watch yet another system enter the region by the time Thursday rolls around, and this system is going to be a tad bit annoying as well. Looks like this one could bring some slightly above normal temperatures in the region, as well as some scattered rain showers mixing in with the snow showers. This system will be quick moving as well.

So not very active in the region today despite some lingering lake effect snow showers in the eastern half of the region. Look for skies clearing in the western half of the region by this afternoon (if not earlier) and then we’re going to watch temperatures fall down to around 10-degrees tonight in the west. Weather stays calm for the day tomorrow and then our next system moves in tomorrow night and into Tuesday morning and will introduce some more snow showers with minimal accumulations and near normal temperatures.

Because I am not expecting that the forecast will need be changed a whole lot today, I will not have another update until this evening around 5.00 p.m. However, at that time I will give you a look at the week ahead in greater detail as well as what we can expect from the Tuesday system. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.