GREAT LAKES WEATHER: The rain is back

15 February 2012

The rain is back

I bet that you all thought that we were done with the rain. Nope, we're not. I am watching a system that will develop in the Plains this afternoon and it is going to quickly head towards the region. Here is what is going to happen over the course of the next couple days:

This afternoon, area of high pressure slowly drifts eastward allowing for surface ridging and upper level ridging to occur. This is going to allow for a surface low pressure to develop along side of an upper level trough. This surface low will deepen (get stronger) quickly and begin to slide towards the region.

Tonight, the low pressure system will begin to near the region. Pulling its warm front across the region, it will start to introduce rain showers into the region from the west to the east. The rain showers will start of generally scattered late this evening, however once that warm front gets closer to the region we're going to watch those rain showers increase in both frequency and intensity. It might end up being a steady rain event overnight tonight with rain fall amounts in the western half of the region around 0.25 to 0.40 inches of rain. This means that we could be seeing some ponding in the fields from that left over snow in the region. With the low pressure nearing the the region late tonight, the 540-mb line will pull to the north of the region, allowing for the precip in the region to remain as rain. The funny thing is, the centre of the low is going to be south of the forecast area at this time...if the temperatures at the surface where to be about 5-10 degrees cooler and the upper levels be about the same, this would be a snow storm.

Tomorrow, high pressure builds into the Plains and slides down into Oklahoma, pushing the surface low between Toledo and Cleveland. The low pressure will deepen a little bit more, allowing for some warm air to be noticed ahead of it. The tricky thing for tonight and mainly tomorrow will be the temperatures as the rain cooled air will compete with the advection which is going to result in very fidgety temperatures. By tomorrow afternoon, the surface low pressure crosses into Lake Erie, dragging its cold front across the region. Highs temperatures tomorrow might actually occur in the pre-afternoon hours, so that is going to be something that I will work on this morning. The rain showers in the eastern half of the region during this time will be at their best, while the western half of the region will start to watch them taper off. Looking for the edge of the front to become rather noticable, I am expecting that precip will pretty much cease right behind the front as that high pressure is going to act as a moisture cutter - though not a very good one. Right now, I am contemplating on whether or not a stray flurry should go into the forecast for the western half of the region in the early evening. Regardless, this system will be about 99% rain for the western half of the region.

Tomorrow night, with that cold front cutting through the eastern half of the region, we can expect to see the rain showers in the eastern half of the region begin to mix with snow. This will be in part to the diurnal cooling that is going to take place, and though the temperatures won't get below 32F (and if they do, it'll barely be) we'll still see a little bit of mixing. SREF showing the 540-mb line sitting right over Lake Erie during this time which is going to really complicate things - but in a good way. When the cold front pushes through the eastern half of the region, it'll drag some cooler air over the warmer lake waters and thus resulting in a brief lake effect snow event. I am not going to put any snow fall accumulations on it yet because honestly I am not expecting that the lake effect snow that does develop will be anything other than some occasional light snow showers and flurries. Temperatures will also become rather unsupportive for it.

Friday and Friday night, the system is going to start clearing out of the region, and an area of high pressure will build into the southern states which will in turn push some cooler air our way from the Plains - but only to near normal levels. Looking for clouds to be here and there, but mainly not much an overcast.

Over the weekend, we'll watch a quick short wave of energy push through the region which might introduce some scattered snow showers briefly into the region, but mainly I am not expecting that will be a whole lot. Mainly the regional weather will be dominated by the high pressures to our west and to our south and these will keep the temperatures right around average for Sunday.

I'll be revising those forecasts this morning and have them posted up on the site by about 11.00 or 11.30 a.m. this morning. I also want to apologize for the lack of updates yesterday as I was having some connection problems with the internet. My next Facebook update won't be until this evening, however the site will be revised at the above times. For now, I am Timmy Albertsona dn that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.