GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Quiet for now

05 February 2012

Quiet for now

Here is a fun weather history fact for you: On this day in 2001, 20-inches of snow fell in New Jersey. This caused quite a few semi trucks to jackknife near the town of Clinton, which resulted in a 50-mile backup along Interstate 78. Will we be getting anything like that this week in the region? Unfortunetly, we will not be seeing anything like that, however if all goes to plan this week in the region, we're going to pick up a few snow flakes as well as some near average (possibly a few degrees below) temperatures by the time Friday and Saturday roll around. Lets go ahead and type about all this for a moment, shall we.

The weather across the region for the week is actually going to be oddly quiet for this time of the year as we're going to see a high pressure dominate the regional weather over the course of the next few days.

We're seeing a high pressure in the west gradually slide into the region today and tomorrow, and this high pressure will work in keeping the weather in the region quiet and clear for the most part.

Tomorrow we're going to watch a second area of high pressure develop to our southeast. This high pressure won't be as strong as the one in the west, but it'll be good enought that it'll work with the western high and help keep the regional weather a little quiet. This high pressure however will also work in ushering in some mild temperatures into the region, however the temperatures aren't going to be that high - mostly in the low to the mid 40's for highs tomorrow in the region - and that is going to be coupled with some breezy conditions. There will be some gusty times in the region tomorrow, however I am expecting that the gusts won't be that high so I didn't mention it in the forecast for tomorrow.

Both of our high pressures slip further to the south tomorrow night as a bigger high pressure develops in the southern Canada area. This high pressure will gradually weaken as it heads towards the region, but it will allow for a mid-level wave to cross through the region on Wednesday, introducing a slight chance for some snow showers. These snow showers that do form will be scattered and light, and temperatures aren't going to be the most supportive for accumulation, so I didn't put any totals up yet.

Another high pressure builds in southern Canada on Thursday and this will allow for a low pressure system to develop ahead of the upper level trough that is going to come down ahead of the high pressure system. This low pressure will not be the strongest, but it will have a trailing cold front which could introduce a little bit of snow in the region, but the chances for the snow in the west aren't looking that high as of right now. However, what I am curious about is whether or not a brief and light lake effect event could develop in the eastern half of the region with this cold front once it passes through. I haven't done much work with the 850-mb temps this morning, but it is something that I am going to watch...even if it does happen it won't be anything that big and the accumulations will be light.

High pressure rolls in behind the cold front and we're going to watch the region cool down a little to near normal - and possibly slightly below normal - temperatures in the region by the time Friday and Saturday rolls around. Looks like there might be a day or two where we'll stay below the freezing level for a high, which compared to the warm weather we've been seeing, will be very welcomed and nice.

So in summary...the weather for this week works like this: A series of high pressures will dominate the regional weather, creating a mainly calm and quiet week. A few waves of low pressure will slide through the region during the middle of the week, but they won't bring much. A broad upper level trough will move down from Canada and towards the region, introducing a weak front with a chance for some snow showers and then cooler weather behind the system itself. Look for slightly above normal temperatures for the start of the week, and then slightly below normal temperatures towards the end of the week.

Because I am not expecting that I will have to change the forecast a whole today, I am not going to be doing any forecast revisions until later this afternoon/evening. There just isn't a whole lot that I am really expecting to change other than the forecast period for Friday through Saturday...but even that is still too far out to make any solid changes. So there will not be a Noon Update today, however if things change drastically for some reason then I'll update you all sooner. But for now, we'll go with the next updates coming up around 6.00 p.m. this evening. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.