GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Now for round #2

22 February 2012

Now for round #2

Still a very busy week in the terms of the weather, as we have a nice sized upper level low hanging around in Canada, allowing for additional troughs, waves and surface lows to move along it and head into the region. Yesterday morning, most of us in the region got a pleasant surprise of some snow showers, I wasn't expecting that cooler air to seep in like that, so I do apologize for that. Otherwise, yesterday went mainly according to plan. Now how is the remainder of the week looking for the region as a whole? Lets go ahead and take a look, shall we:

Additional upper level over Michigan will continue to weaken and move away from the region, pulling the precip away with it, but not the clouds. Today we're going to watch yet another low pressure centre develop over North Dakota and head towards the region. This low pressure is going to be an interesting one and it will definetly be a bit stronger than the one that we saw yesterday. Also, this low pressure will be making a close pass to the region during the day tomorrow and tomorrow night, so we can expect to see a nice temperature drop behind it.

Tomorrow, we're going to watch the low pressure centre pull out of the Plains and make a beeline towards the region. This low wil deepen (get strong) as it heads towards us. Pulling a small warm front across the region tomorrow morning will allow for temperatures to climb up a little bit into the 40's as some riding takes place. One of the many challanges with this system however is going to be the cloud cover and how much it will directly affect the temperatures. The low pressure will begin to produce its precip around its centre, and this precip won't really make it into the region until the afternoon on Thursday. Expect a decent filling from the west to the east as the afternoon progresses and that low pressure nears the region. A trailig cold front will be associated with this low pressure as well, and we'll also start to watch that head towards the region during the afternoon tomorrow.

Tomorrow night is when the bulk of the rain showers arrive into the region. They will be steady at times and could be a bit on the moderate side, but mainly I am not expecting that we're going to see a whole lot of rain fall totals exceeding a quarter inch during the day tomorrow. The rain showers will not be able to last long, as a quick end will happen once the cold front passes through the region. This cold front will be felt as winds will gust a bit, possibly to near 40-mph in part of the western half of the region, however the temperatures won't drop that much. The high pressure that is normally found with these systems won't have arrived yet, and this means that temperatures won't drop right away...possibly not really until Saturday. However, the cold front will drop temperatures enough in the region that the remaining rain showers behind the front will become snow, and when that trough passes through the region, looks like another chance for snow showers.

Now to the trough. On the backside of this low pressure will be a surface trough where the cooler air is and this will allow for snow showers to develop. There might actually be a lake effect snow event in the eastern half of the region, so this will be something that I am going to be monitoring throughout the morning as well. The trough will pass through the region during the morning hours and early afternoon on Friday, allowing for snow showers to be the main form of precip. However, temperatures won't be cool enough to support a whole lot of accumulation, so I am not expecting much in the way of snow fall totals.

Weekend is looking a bit calmer as that high pressure finally builds...but it'll be in a bad location and will not cool us down a whole lot. In fact, the NW flow of the upper level winds will do more than the high itself. Ridging takes place once again in the region as the next system gets ready to enter the region, and this is something that I'll save for the Noon Update.

I'll be revising these forecasts throughout the day, mainly because I was a little rushed in terms of times, so make sure that you keeping checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always. My next Facebook update won't be until about 6.00 p.m. this evening, however the site will be updated throughout the day. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.