GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update

07 February 2012

Noon Update

Surprisingly, no major changes needed to the forecasts this afternoon as things seem to be moving along rather smoothly (knock on wood) and we’re basically just seeing low to mid 30’s throughout the region with cloudy skies which is to be expected. Want to know how inactive the weather in the region is right now? Toledo, in the past 6-hours you’re highest temp was 32° and your lowest was only 32°…the temperatures isn’t even fluctuating right now, that is how slow the weather is today.

Watching a weakening upper level low heading towards the region and this will allow for those clouds to remain in the region tonight and then some spotty snow flurries and maybe a snow shower or two late, will develop in the western half of the region and quickly make their way across the region.

Not really expecting a whole lot in the way of snow from this system for our portion of the region, however the majority of it will get concentrated down to the south like in the Columbus area. By the time Noon tomorrow comes around, I am expecting that the system will basically have cleared the entire region.

Looking for a large area of high pressure to slide down the Plains tomorrow afternoon, allowing for the skies in our area to clear out for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. However we’re going to watch yet another system make its way into the region and this one is going to be a little interesting.

The big thing about this next system will actually be the temperature difference that it brings. Looking for highs over the weekend to actually drop to below normal and it’ll actually feel like February.

On Friday that broad area of high pressure is going to push out of the region, and this will allow for a low pressure to near the region. Now the low pressure isn’t actually going to pass through the region, but its front will. This cold front is going to be rather nice in the sense that it’ll be well defined and bring a nice temperature contrast with it. The front will push through the region on Friday afternoon, allowing for cool air to rush in just in time for the evening. We’ll watch temperatures on Friday night fall into the middle to low teens, and then the real cool air moves in during the day Saturday.

Looking for that high pressure to makes its presence known on Saturday as it allows for cooler to continue sinking into the region. This will allow for highs to remain in the lower 20’s on the day Saturday throughout the much of the region.

Now the only tricky part to this forecast is going to be the snow fall with this front. I am not expecting that there will be a whole of snow ahead of the front, and the majority of it in the west will be light and scattered. However the eastern half of the region could see some lake effect snow showers develop right behind the front and create an event that lasts us through Friday night and into Saturday afternoon. However, accumulations with this will be light and the snow bands that form shouldn’t be all that major either.

I will only be making slight adjustments to the forecasts this afternoon, otherwise nothing really a whole lot to do other than work with the 850-mb temps to find out if the lake effect event in the east will be something to keep an eye on. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.