GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update

01 February 2012

Noon Update

Before we go any further, let’s take a look at the weather that we saw in the region from January. Right now, we’ll take a brief look at Cleveland:

Cleveland, you guys had an awful January. You’re highest temperature for this month was recorded yesterday at 59° (now the highest recorded Cleveland January temperature is 73° set in 1950, so you guys weren’t that bad yesterday). According to the report (which challenges the number we’ve had posted for the past few days), Cleveland you’re low for this month was only 6°. Taking a look at the averages in the Cleveland area, you’re January 2012 average high was a balmy 39.4°F, with an average low of 25.6° and a daily average temperature of 32.5°. In all, the mean temperature was 4.4° above average, which insults last winter when the average was 5° below normal for the month of January. As far as snow goes, so far this winter you guys have only gotten 26.1 inches, which is a good 11.0 inches below normal for this time of the year. But oh well. Due to time, we’ll do the other cities later today, but now let’s go back and get to the weather, shall we.

Looking at the 850-mb temps right now in the region, things are just a tad bit warmer in parts of the region then what I was expecting, however as I mentioned in the preview a moment ago, the temperatures in the region today are going to be rather tricky. We’re looking for the cold front to want to keep those temperatures down into the 30’s, but the sun will want to keep them in the 40’s…and then the clouds will want to settle with 40°, so really we’re just going to have to wait and see for today. Looks like the eastern half of the region will remain on track with the temps; the western half will be a tad bit questionable. Regardless, it won’t affect the outcome of the forecasts that much.

Upper level trough already moving off the Pacific coast and heading into the Rockies this afternoon, and it is rather noticeable as well.

Some ridging taking place ahead of the trough which is to be expected, that will aid in trying to keep the temperatures in the western half of the region from falling too low over the next few days.

High pressure in the central Plains this afternoon will slowly and gradually try to move into Indiana/Ohio later tomorrow. This high will not over stay its welcome and it will quickly retreat back to the north into the northern Plains by the time the weekend shows up. At the same time we’re going to watch our upper level trough develop an upper level low which is going to begin to develop and in doing so it will aid the development of a nice sized surface low pressure over the Plains. This process of the low developing will happen on Friday night and into Saturday. However, it is Saturday where the forecast begins to get a bit on the tricky side.

Remember the high pressure that I just mentioned that will have retreated back into the northern Plains. The high will actually get stronger, not that much, but enough, and it will basically act as a block for the low pressure system. The high pressure will position itself in North Dakota/Saskatchewan area on Saturday and this high will make sure the low pressure doesn’t stray off course. The low pressure centre from the Plains will begin to move and head in an almost west-to-east pattern during the day Saturday and even into Sunday morning. But this is where the forecast becomes increasingly tricky. How far to the north will the precip make it? What type? How much? When? And the exact track of the low pressure?

For now, I am leaning more towards the solutions that keep the low pressure moving quickly and south of the region which means that we’ll be seeing cloudy skies and some scattered precip coming up from the south. The form of precip for now will depend on the exact location of the system, however for now I will go with a more diurnal pattern in the Fort Wayne and Toledo area with rain possible during the day and then snow possible in the morning and overnight. As for the totals of the precip that will occur, I am not expecting that much whether it is rain or snow.

The big challenge right now is actually when we’ll get this system. Sometime I am favoring the GFS, others I am favoring the ECMWF. For now, I am actually leading towards the GFS which follows a pattern closer to the SREF which is favoring the more southerly pattern for something that we’d typically expect for this time of the year. Following these solutions and doing some tweaking of my own…I am going to lean with Sunday morning in parts of the region.

Ok, for now, I am actually going to keep Detroit, Erie and Buffalo dry and I am going to give only Fort Wayne, Toledo and Cleveland a chance of it all…so not really big chances when you look at it. For us, it’ll be a quick moving system where the effects of it won’t be that long lasting.

Still, the recent runs have been very inconsistent and basically change every time they are updated, so right now the forecast is really going on historical numbers and such.

Otherwise, nothing much going on in the world of the weather, which is why this system is being given so much attention during this update. I’ll have another update coming up later this afternoon…by around 4.00 p.m. or so. I’ll also be working on those extended forecasts throughout the evening tonight, so make sure that you check back for those. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.