GREAT LAKES WEATHER: It's about time!

08 February 2012

It's about time!

Before we begin, I want to apologize for the lack of afternoon/evening posts on the site lately. I will make sure that I get more information during the afternoons/evenings as well, so please continue to check during those times as well. Now to the weather:

Weather across the region right now is looking just about uniform from Fort Wayne to Buffalo. Temperatures are holding steady in the mid 20's with the region as a whole (minus Buffalo) under mostly cloudy skies. The weakening upper level low - which is basically a short wave now - is racing towards the south of the region, and this is going to be bringing snow. However, the snow isn't going to really affect us a whole lot...the bulk of the snow is going to go through Indianapolis, Columbus and the Pittsburgh areas, however we're going to be close enough that we're going to be picking up some scattered snow showers, mainly this morning in the west, and before the mid afternoon in the east. The snow showers will be light and there won't be any accumulations because once again temperatures are going to be awkward and hang just slightly above freezing today for highs. That doesn't mean that we couldn't pick up some snow accumulations, but whatever happens will more than likely melt during the afternoon today if we get any.

This system will be a quick moving one, and following right behind it is an area of high pressure that will make its dominance known throughout the region. This high pressure is going to slide into the southern Plains, but it will be good enough that we're going to see clear skies tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will be finicky though, as they will actually be slightly warmer tomorrow than they are today, but generally I am expecting that highs tomorrow in the region will not go above 40. You might be thinking that all the fun ends here, but that is not the case, as we're going to watch a strong cold front push through the region and this will finally give us some winter like weather...more so in temperatures than snow.

On Friday, we're going to watch a low pressure centre swing across the northern Great Lakes. Now, normally this isn't good for us because it gives us warmer weather, but the cool air from today's system will actually be in place and that will keep things from getting too warm. This low will have a trailing cold front which will be well defined and noticable. We're going to be looking for this cold front to literally cut through the region (for lack of a better term) and this is going to push those temperatures down. Snow showers will develop out ahead of the front, however moisture levels in the low levels is still debatable at this time. For now, I am going to go with scattered snow showers during the afternoon and very little accumulations.

Cold front will be quickly pursued by a high pressure which will be at a modest size and head towards Iowa. This high pressure will allow for cooler air to continue to move into the region, and this will not only clear out the skies but start to drop the temperatures as well. Now the most challanging part during this time (aside from the moisture levels) will be the timing of the clouds exiting the region. If we get an early exit in the west, then I will have to lower temperatures, however, if we get a late exit, then temperatures will stay in the mid to upper teens. I'll do more work on that throughout the morning. However, while the western half of the region will be calming down overnight on Friday, the eastern half of the region won't be as much.

This cold front, with a noticable temperature difference, will drag its colder air over the warmer lake waters and we're going to see a difference between surface and 850-mb levels of about 12-14C. This means that there could be some lake effect snow showers, that and the winds are looking like they'll be favourable and we might even see some amounts of moisture. The lake effect that does develop during this time won't be strong nor will it do a whole lot - or even last long for that matter. It is because of this that I have kept accumulations to a minimial on Friday night and Saturday morning in the eastern half of the region.

Cold front exits the region as a whole on Saturday and this will calm the weather down and allow for the high pressure to do its work. Now the high pressure will be at its best for the region during the daytime Saturday, which means that highs are going to be low. I am expecting places like Erie to more than likely stay below 20, and places in the west will have a hard time getting above the lower 20's for a high on Saturday. This will only be like the third time this season where we've been below normal for highs, but nonetheless it is welcomed.

Temperatures will gradually warm over the rest of the forecast period and then we might even have another system on the way, however the latest model runs and charts haven't been consistant with it (same with its timing) so I am not going to do any work with it quite yet.

So winter weather finally on its way and it is going to actually feel a bit like February in the region. I'll have another update coming up around 11.30 a.m. this morning (and my next Facebook update won't be until 5.30 p.m. this evening - and yes, there will be a Facebook Update) so make sure that you check back for that. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.