GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Finally winter!

07 February 2012

Finally winter!

Temperatures in the region right now hanging around close to what they are suppose to be doing this morning, looking at the lower 30's pretty much throughout the entire region this morning. Layer of clouds hanging around the entire region ahead of a weak front that is pushing through the region this morning. This is going to create for temperatures to be a tad bit on the tricky side today, as any clearing will push them up into the upper 30's, by the cool advection coming from behind the front is going to work against the diurnal heating and so we might actually see temperatures in the region today only fluctuate by about 2-4 degrees overall. Now the more interesting part of the forecast for today comes to us later this evening and overnight into tomorrow morning. It isn't going to be that interesting, but better than nothing.

We're going to watch a weakening upper level low move towards the region. This upper low will head towards the region throughout the day today, however the effects of it will not reach us until late tonight...like around 3 a.m. in the western half of the region. This wave will bring some scattered snow showers into the region, but they will be light and fairly widely scattered so I am not expecting anything much from this system other than some cooler temperatures. The snow showers will be comcentrated to the south with this system, so if you're heading to Columbus or Indianapolis, then it's a little bit different, however for us in the region we're looking at mainly scattered snow flurries late tonight and early tomorrow morning and then some cooler temps. A high pressure in the Plains will build in briefly during the afternoon tomorrow and that is going to clear out the skies and keep them clear through tomorrow and Thursday. But this doesn't mean that the fun is over yet, because we have another system that is going to head towards out part of the region and make it feel a bit more like February across the area and possibly giving the eastern half of the region some lake effect snow.

We're going to watch a decent low pressure system develop in the southern Canada area and this is going to slide through the Plains, dragging a strong cold front with it. However the question this morning arises as to how much moisture that front is going to have. With the proximity of the high pressure - not too mention the cold front that is going to slide through today - we're not going to be seeing a whole lot of moisture associated with this front, so I am going to keep snow showers down to a minimum for right now in the western half of the region. However, a strong temperature contrast will be with this front, and once this front passes through, you'll quickly feel the difference as temperatures are going to drop into the lower teens in parts of the region on Friday night. This front will move quickly, and then a high pressure will roar down from the northern Plains and quickly establish some dominance in the west, keeping temperatures cool and barely getting out of the 20's on Saturday. Now the fun parpart is also going to arrive in the eastern half of the region with this front.

When the front pushes through the east, we're going to see the winds blow off the lake and then we're going to watch those temperatures make another quick drop behind it. How strong the winds will be during this time is a little questionable, however they will stay below 30-mph for the most part. This temperature contrast however, will be enough that possibly a little lake effect snow shower event could develop on Friday night and into Saturday and possibly Saturday night as the cool air rushes over the still warmer lake waters. This is where knowing how much moisture will be with this front comes in handy. For now however, I'll go with scattered snow showers and minimal accumulation during this period of the forecast. Mainly, the big thing is going to be the temperatures which are finally going to drop to about normal - maybe a degree or two lower - in the region for at least a day or two.

So, not really much in the way of snow showers in the region, but nonetheless the temperatures will finally cool down. I am not expecting that I will have to change the forecasts a whole lot this morning, so my next update won't be until 11.30 a.m. (my next Facebook update won't be until 4.30 p.m. this afternoon) so make sure you check back for that. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.