GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Are you sure its February?

28 February 2012

Are you sure its February?

High pressure in the region this morning will not stay around much longer as it will begin to drift further to the east while we await for our next system to head towards the region. The high pressure in the region right now is working on keeping the western half of the region clear and the region generally calm. The cool thing is, yesterday if any of you noticed there clouds around the Detroit area and they barely stayed to the north of the Toledo area. That was the upper level trough moving yesterday, and it was a close call for the clouds in the Toledo area, but the trough actually stuck to its course which was nice. But the clouds are going to make a come back for the entire region as the afternoon and evening progresses, and then we're going to watch a bit of rain showers move into the region.

A low pressure centre is developing ahead of an upper level low that is moving out of the Rockies this morning. Right now, this system as a whole is still at the base of the Rockies - not even in Kansas yet. The system will continue to gather up some power and then later this morning we'll watch it quickly jut out of the Rockies and make a beeline for Wisconsin. This low pressure will continue to deepen at the surface levels, and later tonight it'll drag a warm front across the region. This warm front is what'll help introduce the majority of those rain showers and possibly an embedded storm into the region by the time sunrise rolls around in the region. The rain showers will actually show up in the region around the same time. Lets go ahead and look at this a bit more in depth...

Today, low pressure system moves out of the Rockies and into the northern Plains. The low will deepen and its trailing cold front and preceeding warm front will become better defined.

Tonight, low pressure heads into the northern Plains and over towards Minnesota/Wisconsin. This will allow for the system to drag its warm front into the region, starting up those rain showers which will basically be steady. The rain showers could briefly mix with snow ahead at the very beginning, but the chances aren't that great so I left that out of the forecast. The only place that has some wintry weather with this warm front will be the Detroit area, but the warm air will quickly overrun it all by sunrise and turn everything over to rain showers. The rain showers will be moderate at times, so expect rain fall amounts tonight to be around a quarter inch at best. Rain showers will start after midnigh in the western half of the region, but they'll hold off until near sunrise in the eastern half of the region.

Tomorrow, rain showers will be likely throughout the day across much of the region as the low pressure continues to stay to the north of the region. The low pressure will actually start to undergo a form of occlusion, which means that it will start to max out its energy. The system will move into Minnesota during this time. The occluded front - which it is looking like it'll be at this time, cold front remaining to the south of the region - will start to push through the area on Wednesday morning and early afternoon. This will take the majority of the rain showers with it. Tomorrow will be interesting to see how it unfolds in the region as there might be a few embedded storms within these rain showers. However, I am expecting that the event will mainly be rain, however those storms will be something to keep an eye out for as they could help to push rain fall totals up a bit more. Main storm event will actually stay well to the south of the region near the Ohio River, so looks like we won't be seeing those form this system.

Otherwise, an area of high pressure will set up in the region briefly and we'll go for a calm day Thursday...that is until the next system arrives on Thursday night and into Friday.

So it will basically rain tonight and tomorrow in the region as a strong low pressure system passes us to our north and allows for warmer air to move into the region.

I'll keep you updated as always. I'll be briefly revising those forecasts around 7.30 a.m. so make sure that you check those out. I'll also be having a Noon Update as always. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.