GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Another Busy Week

18 February 2012

Another Busy Week

Cold front making its way across the region far earlier than expected this morning, looks like we're not going to see that push of moisture that I was expecting yesterday, but nonetheless we're still going to see a few clouds from this and some flurries. High pressure will be quick to build in behind this cold front and that is going to attempt to clear the skies out in the western half of the region late this afternoon and this evening, and we're going to see some clear skies once again. The eastern half of the region isn't going to see that clearing however and you guys will keep those clouds in your forecast through the overnight tonight. In fact, there will be some lingering moisture behind this front as well as some temperature contrasts in the eastern half of the region, and it looks like a brief lake effect snow event will take place in the Erie and Buffalo areas.

The snow that does form won't be that strong and it will be fairly quick and light. Expect snow fall totals to only amount to an inch at best in the Buffalo area, and Erie will be lucky if they pick up a trace of snow. This really isn't going to last that long and once again it'll more than likely be over with by tomorrow morning.

Weather remains calm through the day tomorrow and even into Monday as this high pressure will dominate the regional weather. This high pressure will keep the next low pressure system out of the region, blocking it from really effecting us a whole lot. A strong low will form down in the southern states and try to move up the East Coast, but with the high pressure in the way, looks like that low pressure might actually get pushed off the east coast and not really do much of anything. A few days ago there was some concern that the low would pass up the East Coast and bring its precip shield into the region, however as of this morning I am not expecting that will happen. Because of this, I kept the majority of the region under mostly clear skies with the influence of the high pressure and some cooler temps as well. Temperatures will remain around average throughout the weekend, and then they'll start to warm as the high pressure shifts to the east and our next system gets ready to enter the region.

An active week is actually in store for us as two low pressure systems will basically affect the region as a whole. This is where the forecast gets a little tricky. I'll explain it really quickly: Three lows will develop within close time of each other and close location (when it comes to affecting our part of the region) they will all be so close in both time and location that dividing them up in the forecasts is actually the trickiest part of it all...makes you wonder which low is causing which chance for precip.

Another challange that is arising this morning is the intensity of these low pressure systems. They will not be record breaking intensity...or really even that strong for that matter...but they will be decent enough that their effects will be noticable. The upper level trough swinging down over the region isn't really helping a whole lot this morning when trying to divide them up. However, the big downer this morning comes with the first system that will once again bring the region above normal temperatures and rain.

The first low pressure will come cruising out of the northern Plains with its trailing cold front and preceeding warm front. Ahead of the system will come warm advection, coupled with the high pressure exiting from the east which allow for warmer air to drawn upwards into the region. Looks like highs could get into the upper 40's by the time Tuesday and/or Wednesday comes around. There is even a chance that I will bump things up to about 50 later this evening depending on how I feel. This system however is going to be a little annoying with the rain showers and the exact location and timing of them. The rain showers will generally be scattered and the clouds will be around, so that is going to complicate both lift and high temperatures for the day. There is also the factor the 1000-500-mb temperatures which are going to basically sit right over the region during this time...making it a pain to determine whether or not it'll be rain or snow in the region. For now, I am going to go with rain as the 850-mb temps will work against us. There will also be a good impluse of warm air from the southwest so that will more than likely keep things in the region as rain. Fort Wayne and BUffalo might be lucky enough to actually pick up some brief mixing, but really...not expecting that to really happen at this point.

Rest of the week looks active as those next two, albeit weaker, low pressures affect the region brining with them whatever form of precip they want to bring...rain...sleet...hail...snow..fire. Who knows at this point, right? (Joke). I'll be revising those extended forecasts in a little bit, however today is going to be a busy day for me, so I won't have a Noon Update or Post today. I'll be working on those forecasts however this evening, so I would expect that around 8.00 p.m. I'll have a forecast revision and post both on the site and on Facebook, so make sure that you check back for that. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.