GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Active Week Again

19 February 2012

Active Week Again

Area of high pressure located in the western half of the region will slowly drift eastward between now and tomorrow. This high pressure is going to keep the regional weather for the next 24-hours or so, but then the week is going to become rather active as an upper level low makes itself known with its low pressure centers. The week will be filled with a series of weak lows that will introduce precip into the region, as well as some above normal temperatures to start off with. Let us go ahead and go a little in depth with this system.

Tomorrow, high pressure will still dominate the regional weather so I am not expecting much to really be happening in the region. However, over in the Plains we're going to watch a low pressure begin to develop and then head towards the region. This low will have a weak warm front and a nice sized cold front with it, and not to mention that with all that comes the precip it will have.

Tomorrow night, clouds will start to increase gradually and slowly from the west to the east throughout the region as the low pressure system nears the region. The clouds will begin as high level and then eventually make their way down to the mid and possibly lower levels in the western half of the region by the time sunrise comes about.

Tuesday, the weather gets a little bit more active as that low pressure will begin to near the region. Watching as rain showers will develop, possibly mixing with snow in the early stages, but then the system is going to basically give the region as a whole some rain showers. The rain showers will begin as fairly scattered and light, however there is a chance that we could pick up some steadier rain showers later in the afternoon. The eastern half of the region is going to be seeing the same thing, however they are going to have to wait until the afternoon to pick up those rain showers. Sounds simple enough, but here is where things begin to get a little bit tricky.

First off the 540-mb line is going to be pretty much directly over the region during this time, which means that we're going to see the possibility of snow showers towards the end of this system. And that is what is looking like will happen in the region.

Tuesday night, we're going to watch that front make its way across the region, and towards the end of the rain showers there will be some brief mixing with snow. Now the snow showers won't be very frequent as the rain showers will already be widely scattered. To add to this, the temperatures are still going to be too warm (along with the ground for that matter) and this is going to prevent those snow showers from accumulating. Mainly it'll just be some quick flurries.

Wednesday, the region will pretty much get a brief break before the next system arrives. Temperatures will be tricky to forecast for as the clouds will prevent them from getting that high, but the next system will try to raise them. I am not expecting that they will get too high, but above normal temperatures will be likely again in the region.

Wednesday night and Thursday, the next system arrives in the form of a low pressure centre which will enter the region with its fronts. The precip in the region will actually start off as snow as some cooler air will be in place briefly overnight from the previous cold front just mentioned. This isn't going to last long as the snow showers will transition over to rain showers during the day Thursday and we're going to see likely rain showers once again in the region. Rain showers with this one might actually remain scattered, so I am not expecting that we're going to see a whole lot of rain fall totals from this system, but nonetheless we're going to pick up some rain showers and some above normal temperatures in the region. This system will a tricky one, as moisture behind it and coupled with the upper level trough will cause for some lingering precip to be in the region.

Thursday night...still lingering precip as the upper level trough swings into the region and actually turns those scattered rain showers into scattered snow showers. Not really expecting any accumulation right now as temperatures will start off just a tad bit too warm for accumulations, however I will be keeping an eye on this later this evening and during the morning tomorrow.

So how are the updates going to work again today? Well, I will once again be busy today (but tomorrow I will not be, so do expect things to be on the normal update schedule once again). I will not have a noon update or post today, but I will be briefly revising those forecasts this evening (I promise, I will). Again, tomorrow, the updates will be back to normal. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.