GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Active system

24 February 2012

Active system

Still a busy morning here in the region, despite the fact that nothing much is presently happening at the surface. The low pressure centre is down in central Ohio right now, as expected, and it continues to deepen as it gets ready to make a sharp turn to the northeast. At the same time, upper level winds are showing a well defined upper level trough with a good flow in the winds, helping to enhance the low pressure which is good. 300-mb winds over the region right now are blowing at about 150-kts this morning, so that is really nice to see. Low pressure will keep the region warm this morning, but once it makes that turn to the northeast, it will drag a cold front through the region and drop those temperatures noticably once the afternoon arrives.

I am going to attempt to word this as simply as possible, so try to bare with me. Low pressure right now is to our south, but the cooler air isn't really in place yet for the region, with the notable exception of Detroit where snow is still likely. The precip that does form in the region this morning will do so along the cold front boundary as it heads towards the region. The rain showers will actually start to mix with the snow showers very near to the front. However, wrap around moisture associated with this low pressure system is really ample and doing well, so it looks like that once that front passes through the region and the moisture catches up, we're going to see some snow showers develop. The snow showers that do develop will be light and scattered, and as far as accumulations are concerned in the region, I am really not expecting a whole lot. The ground is merely too warm and the surface temperatures aren't going to be very supportive of it.

As the front plows through the region this afternoon/early evening, expect temperatures to drop quickly. I am expecting that our highs are going to occur at awkward times today, so it might actually be a bit warmer when you head out the door this morning then it will be will you head home. The winds will also increase, so I am going to make sure that I put that in the forecast as well.

With the cold front moving throught the eastern half of the region later this evening, it will pull that cooler air over the warmer lake waters and yes...we got ourselves another lake effect snow event in the eastern half of the region. This one will be fairly decent, but nothing too extreme, about 2-4, maybe 3-5 inches of snow will be likely in the eastern half of the region with this event. It won't last very long at all, so do not expect it for the entire weekend, but it will stay around for the majority of the day Saturday.

High pressure flows south of the region over the weekend, calming the weather down around Sunday and allowing for some normal temperatures to briefly return into the region. However this isn't going to last long as we have yet another system that is going to affect the region. This syste is going to drag a warm front to the north of the region, and we'll go once again into above normal temperatures with rain showers possible by the middle of next week.

Hopefully I made that simple enough. This will be the only post for the day as I am going to be busy with the forecasts throughout the morning and afternoon today. If things change too drastically then I will put up a post, but if not, just expect the only updates to be merely forecast changes. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.