GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Winter?

29 January 2012

Winter?

The weather across the region for the start of the week is going to feel like anything but winter. We got some above normal temperatures on its way into the region and then some more rain showers, but only after we get a chance of some snow showers in the region today.

A broad upper level trough is centered over the region this morning and it's effects are being felt with some wind and cool temperatures in the region. A wave of energy and the associated clipper low centre will move towards the region this morning and this is going to introduce a chance for snow showers into the region. The snow showers are going to arrive late this morning in the west and then this afternoon in the east and the temperatures are once again going to make things a litle bit difficult when handling the accumulations. Looks the snow showers will affect the western half of the region during the warmest time of the day, so I am not going to bother much with accumultions in the Fort Wayne to Toledo areas (including Detroit). However the snow showers are going to affect the eastern half of the region as the diurnal heating comes to an end, so we'll go with some accumulations over that way, but nothing big. A very brief lake effect event will set up in the eastern half of the region this evening, but that won't last long at all and it will be local...so total accumulations in the Erie will amount to about 2-4 inches if lucky. Again, with the highs in the west today being in the mid 30's it will be very hard for that snow to accumulate much.

Once this system passes through the region this evening and exits towards the east, we're going to watch that pesky high pressure in the southern states get situated and begin to cause ridging on both the surface and upper levels. This high pressure will be decent sized, so we're going to see some above normal temperatures in the region tomorrow. Though I didn't put it in the forecasts, with the quick inversion of the warm air from this high pressure, I am expecting things to get a bit breezy - especially in the west - and depending on how I feel in a little bit, I might add it onto the forecasts, but for now, we'll just keep with breezy.

The ridging will really begin to take effect throughout the day tomorrow as a weak low pressure/disturbance tries to enter the region. This high pressure to the south will allow for a warm front to move through the region from the west and this will introduce some challanges to the forecasts for tomorrow afternoon/evening. The bulk of the precip itself will actually skirt the region and stay mainly over Michigan and southwestern Ontario, but nonetheless it could be good enough to throw some of it's rain/snow showers down our way. However the forecast also gets a bit more tricky whereas some of the precip will be ahead and behind that weak front. The precip ahead will be snow, and the precip behind will be rain showers. I am not expecting that there is going to be a whole lot of moisture with this system, so for now, we'll keep things with widely scattered, and there is a chance that I will drop some of those precip chances in the western half of the region for tomorrow morning. I'll keep an eye on that this morning.

High pressure slides a bit more to the south and east of the region tomorrow night and Tuesday, allowing for it to push more warm air into the region to a point where we'll be about 15-20 degrees above average for this time of the year (so we'l be warm) this will also introduce some moisture into the region ahead of an advancing low pressure (where the warm front is coming from) and this will allow for the lows cold front to start interacting with it. On Tuesday itself we'll once again see mainly widely scattered precip, but again, I am a bit unsure this morning with how much low level moisture will be around, so we'll go with widely scattered rain showers during the time. The precip that does form will mainly come overnight Tuesday...when the cold front arrives.

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, we're going to see rain showers in the region and these rain showers will be fairly light and they will all be in response to that front. Once the front passes through, the rain showers will exit the region.

Now the rain showers that do form, they are going to be light so I am not really expecting a whole lot in terms of rain fall amounts. It isn't going to be pouring down rain for three days straight, but it will be cloudy. So mainly this is going to be a light rain shower event and a widely scattered one to add.

I'll keep you updated, but seeing as how nothing much looks to be changing over the next couple of hours, my next Post won't be until this evening. I'll revise those forecast around 5.00 p.m. this evening, but otherwise there won't be any updates this afternoon. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.