GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Weather rollercoaster

11 January 2012

Weather rollercoaster

Where to begin? The weather across the region is going to become rather active over the course of today and tomorrow and this is going to be due in part to two seperate low pressure system that will effect the region. Clouds are going to be on the increase today as that Texas low pressure nears the region and this is going to introduce rain showers in the region as early as late this afternoon in the region.

The rain showers, I was originally expecting them to stay out of the region, however I did overlook one common sense item: the absorbtion of the northern low.

Tonight, with the Texas low pressure nearing the region, we're going to focus some of our attention to the west where an upper level trough is going to dig into the region. This upper trough will have its associated low pressure system rolling through the northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region. The Texas low was trying to stay ahead of the trough, however it will actually get caught into the flow of the upper level trough tonight and that is going to mean that it will start working with the northern low pressure.

Northern low pressure, along with its trailing cold front will start to enter the region. The low pressure centre will drop into the Michigan area and actually steal some of the energy from the Texas low. This northern low is going to deepen quickly tomorrow and then it will pull the cold front across the region, droppig temperatures quickly behind it and turning the precip over to snow showers.

The passage of the cold front in the region is still a little bit on the tricky side. Fort Wayne area will more than likely see an early afternoon passage of the front, which means that your highs will occur around Noon tomorrow and then they will quickly begin to fall off. Toledo and Detroit will see a late afternoon passage, so that will work with the diurnal temperatures. The temperatures in those areas will fall like they normally would in the early evening...but then they will start to fall a bit more gradually. Overnight lows tomorrow night are going to be noticably cooler, more than likely in the in the lower 20's for the western half of the region.

At the same time, the upper level trough is going to become a closed upper level low...a broad one by that matter and that is going to move through the region on Friday and into the weekend. This upper level low in the region is going to be introducing cooler weather and snow showers in the region. The fact that the winds and the sudden drop in temperatures along with some other factors that I'll go further into later this morning, will cause for a lake effect snow shower to develop in the region. As far as accumulations, I haven't put any in the eastern half yet (with the exception of Buffalo for Friday). I am going to do so during the 7.30 a.m. morning update. I did give Fort Wayne accumulations of 2-4 inches, however there is a chance that I might be upping those a little bit. Toledo, I gave you guys about 2 inches of total snow fall.

I'll go further into this system coming up at 7.30 a.m. this morning and that will be on the site. My extended forecasts will also be revised around that time as well. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.