GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Way too Warm

31 January 2012

Way too Warm

Weather is going to be well above average today in the terms of the temperatures. We'll be about 25...possibly even 30 degrees above average in some spots. To put this into perspective...pretend that is the 4th of July in Cleveland; the average high on that day is 81 and the average low is 63. If they got the same proportional temperature difference during the 4th of July, Cleveland would have a high around 106 and a low of 88. So naturally the weather we're seeing today isn't very normal, but nonetheless it happens more often than we notice. So what is going on today that is causing this?

We have ourselves a low pressure over the northern Plains this morning and it is doing well. The low pressure centre has a warm front attached to it that has passed through the region during the evening hours last night. The warm front is allowing for warm advection to take place as a high pressure slides off to the east over the Outer Banks. Together, this combination, is why we're seeing the warm air today. We'll see some clear skies for the first half of today, but this afternoon we're going to start watching the clouds move in from the west to the east ahead of the system itself and this is going to give us cloudy skies for the next couple of days. The winds today will be a little breezy, but I am not expecting that they will be gusty enough for me to put them in the forecast.

At the same time this evening, we're going to watch a cold front get ready to move through the Plains and head towards the region. This evening, that cold front is going to push that warm air and sort of squeeze it up against the front (for lack of a better term) and this is where we're going to watch some rain showers develop this evening and overnight tonight in the region. The rain showers will be fairly scattered and they will mostly be light, so I am not really expecting a whole lot in terms of rain fall totals, but nonetheles they will be around.

The cold front will not actually pass through the region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, and despite the name, we're going to see temperature differences as quickly as we would like. The high pressure that is normally responsible for the cooler weather in the region will actually slip south into the Plains before it heads towards our region. This high pressure is going to gradually make it towards the region towards the end of the work week (by Thursday afternoon) and that is going to finally start to cool the temperatures back down to normal throughout the region.

High pressure will remain the dominant weather features throughout the weekend, and we might even start to get a few breaks in the clouds if all goes the high pressure's way, but for now, I am just going to keep the region under cloudy skies until I do some more work with that high pressure.

We will be watching an interesting low pressure system begin to develop at the base of the Rockies right around the forecast peroid, so that is something that I am going to be keeping an eye on. However the recent models runs have differed greatly with this system, so any forecast that I were to make on it this morning would be followed by little confidence, so I will wait until the 11.30 a.m. update before I do work on that system.

Really, there isn't going to be a whole lot of exciting weather taking place in the region over the next few days with the exception of the warm temperatures today and the average temperatures that are going to be returning. My next update will be around 11.30 a.m. this morning (my next Facebook update will not be until this evening) and I'll revise those forecasts at that time as well. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.