GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Update

02 January 2012

Update

A bit to type about this afternoon as the lake effect snow is under way across the entire region. As odd as it sounds, the snow in the western half of the region is partially responsible in part to Lake Michigan. Over in the eastern half of the region, it goes really without saying...it is snowing. Winds gusting over the lake from the NW combined with low level lapse rates of 7.5°C/km are allowing for those snow showers to continue. Upwards of 9-16 inches of snow is likely in Erie, PA for today and tonight alone, with an additional 3-5 inches possible. For those of you out in the Cleveland area and points eastward, if you have snow fall totals you'd like to send in at any point to help adjust forecasts if needed, send them to me at albertson_timmy@yahoo.com but there are rules to measuring snow. Whether you send them to me or just measure for you own entertainment, here are some guidelines to use when measuring snow:

1. There is a differnce between measuring snow on the grass and snow on pavement. Pavement measurments are preferred, HOWEVEVER (ALL CAPS...IT MUST BE IMPORTANT) DO NOT TAKE PAVEMENT MEASURMENTS UNLESS THE SNOW ACCUMULATED AT THE SAME TIME IT DID WITH THE GRASS. If it started sticking to the grass at like 8, and it didn't start sticking to the pavement until 10...do not bother with pavement measurements. Also...do not take them in the road...salt messes things up, as does cars. Plus, it isn't really safe to measure snow in the middle of a highway. When you do take measurements on the grass, there is one important thing to remember: snow is light so it doesn't touch the base of the ground, usually. Always brush the snow aside to see just how far off the ground it is actually accumulating. What might look like 2 inches of snow, could only be 1 inch.

2. Take multiple measurements. Snow blows and drifts. Take between 5-20 measurements, average them out and come up with an average number. That is your total. Fields work best, if you do not have a field to meausre...find a place where houses, cars and trees have had little effect on the snow. Do not measure a snow drift and call that your total...that goes without explaination.

Sounds simple enough. So when will the snow let up in the region? Not really anytime in the near term that is for sure. Scattered snow showers will continue in the western half of the region, and generally snow should stay under an inch, though some places might actually get above an inch so I am going to be monitoring that through the next hour or so. Temperatures are going to remain in the mid to upper 20's for highs today, so most of that snow will stick to the ground. Lake effect snow showers will continue through the afternoon and overnight in the eastern half of the region and they will last through the day tomorrow and start to dwindle down late tomorrow afternoon in the eastern half of the region.

Cool weather will be around tomorrow, definetly, as the upper level trough really pulls in some cooler air into the region. Looking at highs in Erie tomorrow to have a hard time getting past 15° with the rest of the region possibly barely getting past 20° for a high tomorrow afternoon. Winds will still be a little breezy, but not that gusty, but they will be enough to put the windchill perhaps down to about 0° overnight tonight and tomorrow.

Upper level trough will start to pull out of the region Wednesday and Thursday, allowing for a warm front to push through the region and bring in some warmer temperatures. By Friday, we'll be above average for temperatures once again, however there could be another weak system that will push thruogh which could put temperatures back down to normal by the time Saturday rolls around. I'll type more about that later this afternoon.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.