GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Transitional change on its way

12 January 2012

Transitional change on its way

I'll make this update brief. We'll focus on the present weather at hand and what we can expect over the course of today.

Right now, the weather is anything but calm in our region. If you cant the low pressure centres we have: 1 heading towards NYC at 995-mbs with another low pressure centre attached to it (#2) via occluded front over the NW Ohio area at 994-mbs. Low pressure #3 can be found over Lake Michigan at 998-mbs attached to low number #4 via cold front at 1001-mbs. Low's #2-4 will work together throughout the day today, with #2 deepening further as #3 and 4 head towards the region, brining the cold front with it.

Safe to say, there is a broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region this morning. The upper level trough is going strong over the Mississippi River this morning and it is starting to develop a closed low over eastern Kansas right now. The first upper level low from Texas has basically gotten absorbed into the broad trough. Snow showers are popping up this morning all over the western Illinois and Wisconsin area (even down in St. Louis). The cause of these snow showers: low pressures 3 and 4 are pulling a good amount of moisture around their centres and throwing it southward into the trough. A little mixing and some physics and thus snow. The snow is appearing rather well this morning, so I will keep the 2-4 inches in the Toledo area between tonight and tomorrow, with the same amount in Fort Wayne. With that being said...surface charts are basically cluttered this morning. You should see the upper level charts this morning.

In simple terms this morning, low #2 will continue to get stronger, and it wont be moving much. This will allow for the front and the other two low pressure to "slam" (for lack of a better word) into it later today.

Now I am going to keep the widely scattered rain showers in the western half of the region this morning and throughout the afternoon, but mind you they will be light and generally scattered (hence the term). Eastern half of the region will be seeing steadier rain showers this morning and then those too will become widely scattered and sort of linger around in the area this afternoon.

Temperatures are going to try and recover in the region today, but this area of low pressure dragging down some cool air is going to make it hard to get to the temperatures that we saw yesterday. Because of this, I will keep the temperatures in the region rather low for this type of a system with highs only getting into the lower 40's in the west, and possibly the mid 40's in the east.

The cold front is approaching the region mind you, and it is going to come at a very awkward time. It will not fully arrive until late this afternoon, when the temperatures are already starting to drop due to the setting sun, and what will start off as a normal temperature fall will actually end up being a sharp drop in the western half of the region this evening which will put our lows down near 20° (maybe a degree or two lower).

The cold front will not reach the eastern half of the region until later tonight and into tomorrow morning. Buffalo will actually see their highs occur tomorrow morning...possibly around 5.00 a.m. tomorrow morning, and those temperatures will drop into the upper 20's and pretty much stay there.

I am expecting another lake effect snow event to develop in the eastern half of the region tomorrow and into Saturday. This one won't be as strong as the one we saw back in New Years Day, but it will be modest nonetheless. I haven't really worked with snow fall totals on this part yet, but I am expecting it to be in the 4-6 inch range - give or take an inch.

So it appears that this unusual warm pattern in the region is starting to fall apart and winter is starting to win out. Temperatures over the weekend will be a few degrees below normal, but there will be a little bit of recovery towards the start of next week as we watch yet another system move into the region. Now this system wont be as strong, it might give us some rain showers, but in the end it will give us snow. There will be a little warm advection in the region (evident in my extended forecasts) but those temps will quickly drop in the region once again by the time Tuesday night rolls around.

So, again...rain this morning, snow this evening in the west. Rain today, snow overnight in the east. Majority of the west will pick up a few inches tonight and some additional snow tomorrow as well. Again, 2-4 inches in the western half of the region is the main number we'll go with for now.

I'll have another update coming up around 11.00 a.m. this morning, along with revised forecasts. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.