GREAT LAKES WEATHER: To Winter...or Not Winter?

25 January 2012

To Winter...or Not Winter?

A few changes to the forecast this morning, and one of them was for the Fort Wayne and Toledo area today. Looks like some clearing in the western half of the region right now, so I did keep those areas clear through the morning, but I am going to bring the clouds back this afternoon so that this evening it'll be mostly cloudy. Otherwise, an awkward low pressure is going to affect the region late tonight and tomorrow and this low pressure will do everything in its power to make the forecast for the next 36-hours a little tricky...not that tricky, but enough.

A high pressure centered over the region this morning will slowly push off to the east. As this high moves off to the east, it will start to introduce some weak warm advection into the region, but again we're not going to see highs get to crazy tomorrow. With the high sliding off to the east today and tonight, this will allow for a developing low pressure to begin to affect the region.

This evening, a weakening upper level low is going to come out of the southern Plains and during the course of tomorrow this upper level low will begin to return to the upper level trough that is coming out of the northern Plains. This will help to enhance the upper level trough as it heads towards the region. Now the upper level low will help a developing surface low pressure that is going to get organized more so this afternoon and overnight tonight, and the flow will help bring those clouds into the region and then the rain showers into the region tomorrow.

There is a chance that areas like Fort Wayne, Toledo and even Detroit might actually miss out on the precip if the upper level low waits a few extra hours before entering the trough, but for now, I will keep a stray rain shower in the forecast for the tomorrow afternoon hours.

The system as a whole will pass through the region by Friday, but then we're going to watch a quick short wave move through the mid levels and that will bring back some clouds into the region and then even some snow showers for the eastern half of the region, so this will be something that I am going to have to keep an eye on.

A broad upper level trough will enter the region over the weekend and this will bring in some clouds and even some cooler temperatures that will actually put us below normal for about a day. The trough might actually make things a bit unsettled to the point where another lake effect snow event could develop in the eastern half of the region. However, as to how much snow that will fall from this event is still a little bit on the questionable side. That too is something that I will monitor over the course of the day.

I'll keep you updated as always, and I'll be revising those forecasts again this morning around 7.30 a.m. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.