Well a clipper system is going to push through the region today and we're already seeing the effects of it in the western half of the region this morning with some decent snow showers coming down in Fort Wayne, Toledo and apparently Detroit as well. The only tricky part of the forecasts today is going to be the accumulations as temperatures are going to be hovering right around 32F throughout the morning in the western half of the region. Looking for them to fluctuate a little bit, but nonetheless the west might be able to pick up about an inch of snow this morning if all goes to plan. Now how about the eastern half of the region? Well they will see the same thing, only a few hours later than the west. The cold front will enter the region this afternoon, which means that those snow showers are going to start arriving by the noontime hours and they will take the eastern half of the region into the early evening. Some lake effect snow showers might actually attempt to briefly develop, but they won't last very long as the front won't have a whole lot of moisture behind it. But with that brief enhancement, I did go with about 1-2 inches of snow in the Erie area for today. Otherwise, this evening and overnight will be calm in the region, that is until we get ready for yet or next system which is going to push through tomorrow morning and afternon in the region as well. We'll be watching a disturbance, a short wave off the main upper level low in Ontario, get slide through the region. This will introduce yet some more snow showers in the region by Noon tomorrow and those too will carry the region into the evening hours. Now here is where things get a little interesting, there could be enough cool air associated with this disturbance and some breezy winds that the Erie area could pick up a little bit of lake effect snow showers tomorrow evening, but those won't be much as well either. Temperatures will still be a little tricky during this time, however we can expect about 1-3 inches of snow fall tomorrow in the eastern half of the region. The upper level low in the Ontario area will actually allow for some normal temperatures to dip into the region during this time as well and even into tomorrow night, but than the upper level will start to slide away as a high pressure slips into the southern states and pushes in some warmer air into the region.
With the introduction of this surface high pressure to the south of the region, we'll watch as it is able to send in some warmer air into the region. This warm air is going to cause for some ridging into the upper levels which is going to allow for the temperatures to rise to above normal once again on the day Monday in the region. At the same time, we're going to watch a weak cold front attempt to slip to the north of the region during this time, and that will bring some of us a chance for snow showers (and maybe a slight chance of rain, but I wont put that into the forecast just yet) and that is going to be something that won't really amount to a whole lot. Mainly the west will see cloudy skies and the east will see some snow showers possible, mainly in the afternoon. Otherwise, Monday won't be a whole lot other than another above normal temperature day. But the temperatures are going to rise a bit more on Tuesday.
How high? Simple, once again we're going to watch our temperatures in the region come to the mid 40's once again in response to yet another low pressure system that will haunt us from the north.
With the high pressure to the south and east of the region, we're going to watch a low pressure centre come down from the northern Plains, however, it will attempt to slide down, but the high pressure will not allow for that to happen. This low will have a warm front and a trailing cold front. With this warm front, it will move to the north of the region, allowing for further warm air advection to take place, and unfortunetly, we're going to be seeing some rain showers from it. Now this won't be a washout system, but it will be one where spotty rain showers wil be able to haunt us throughout the day in the region.
Now yesterday I typed about a possible low pressure that would track to our south and east and that could give us snow, well this morning the models have basically left that idea and do not show many signs of it coming near our part of the region. However remember that low pressure I just typed about in the previous paragraph? Well that one could still give us some interesting weather with its cold front. As the low pressure moves through the northern Great Lakes region, there will be about a day between the warm front and cold front - which is expected - and that cold front will have enough cooler air with it that after the initial push of rain showers in the region, we might be able to once again pick up some snow showers from it. As to how much snow? Well it won't be a whole lot, but it will be a little. The main feature with this front will be some cooler air behind it, but nothing that extreme. The front appears that it will enough to possibly give us some normal temperatures for the start of February, otherwise not expecting a whole lot more from that system as a whole.
So what am I expecting for the month of February? I am not one to really make long range forecasts, but judging by the pattern of the weather we've been seeing and what is happening, I am expecting the following chances for the month of February: There is a very likely chance that we'll see above normal precipitation (be it rain or snow, either way it'll be somewhat, not a whole lot, but a little above normal). I am expecing a 50% chance that February - at least the second half of that month - will be near to normal in terms of temperatures. I am expecting a 40% chance that the month of February will be above normal in terms of temperatures. I am expecting only a 10% chance that February will be below normal in terms of temperatures (like Feb. 2007). Why do I expect this? Well the La Nina over in the Pacific is stil going at a decent rate, but it is going to start gradually weakening throughout the next month or two. This means that the weather is going to attempt to head back to normal. We won't really see the effects of the weakening La Nina right away as this weakening will be gradual and will take a few months. Coupled with the recent weather pattern we've been seeing where the systems are all there...just in the wrong spots and the wrong time.
Now I am not expecting a whole to change with the forecasts for today, so this will be the only Post until this evening, probably around 8.00 p.m. or so I will update you all again. Otherwise, I'll revise those forecasts around 4.30 p.m. this afternoon. I'll update you all sooner if things change drastically before then, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.
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