The system that we're watching right now is a low pressure that developed along side its associated upper level low pressure system. This Texas low is still trying get moving, but a high pressure to its north is blocking it by a few hours. This high pressure is actually responsible for some of the warm air that we're seeing right now across the region, and this high pressure is going to slide further to east later today.
Looking at the surface chart right now, it is very evident that the low pressure system can not move due to the high pressure blocking it. Interesting when you look at it.
Again, with the high pressure sliding off to the east later today, that is going to allow for warmer air to enter the region and the upper ridge is going to become a more pronounced overnight tonight and into the day tomorrow. Our attention will stay with this system and then at the same time, we're going to want to turn our attention over to our next system which will work with this first system. Sounds confusing huh? Try forecasting it.
Up in the northwestern half of the country - more so British Columbia, Canada - a trough is deveeloping and making its way slowly into the northern Rockies right now. This is allowing for a high pressure to slide down on the western edge of it along with a low pressure on the eastern edge of this trough. Right now, however, the majority of our regional weather is being dominated by the system in the southern states.
Tomorrow, we're going to watch the Texas low pressure finally break free of the area of high pressure, however its path will be a little awkward as it will be trying to stay ahead of the upper trough and away from the high pressure in the mid-Atlantic states. This will allow for the low pressure to move towards the region, brining in some clouds and some slightly warmer than today high temperatures.
Tomorrow night, we're going to watch the Texas low pressure make its glancing pass at the region. I am still a little bit unsure of just how far to the west the precip from the centre will extend, however I will keep a chance for rain showers in the western half of the region during the evening tomorrow. There might be a break in the rain showers after midnight tomorrow night. But nonetheless the eastern half of the region is still going to be seeing those rain showers in the region and this is going to allow temperatures tomorrow night to be rather mild despite the clouds and rain.
Thursday, that Texas low will have fully exited the region, taking a good chunk of the precip with it. However, the only default at this time is that the Texas low will have gotten somewhat "absorbed" into the influence of the upper level trough in the west. And this means that the northern Low pressure will have taken some of that energy and used it for itself. The northern low pressure will quickly drop down into Michigan, pulling its cold front across the region and introducing a good chance for snow showers throughout the region. However, the question right now is when that front is going to pass through the region. I was originally expecting an early morning passage in the west, however I am starting to think that won't be likely. Regardless of the passage, the lingering rain showers in the region will quickly turn to the snow showers.
With the approaching of the upper level trough, the air is going to become a bit more unsettled, allowing for some more snow showers to develop as this trough develops a closed low. At the same time, the low pressure over Michigan is going to deepend further, possibly undergoing some occlusion, which means that additional moisture and cooler will get wrapped around the low overnight Thursday and we'll start to see some accumulating snow showers in the western half of the region on Thursday night. For now, I am not going to raise the snow fall totals in the region quite yet, I am going to take a few more measurements with the upper level trough this afternoon. So for now, overnight Thursday and into Friday morning we'll go with about 1-3 inches in the western half of the region. The accumulating snow wont really arrive until Friday afternoon and into the weekend for the western half of the region and that will be in response to that cold front which will pull through the region, dragging cold air into the region over the warmer lake waters and thus allowing for some lake effect snow showers to develop.
The think about the lake effect snow showers that do develop, is that this could be a short event, however it might bring in some decent snow fall totals for the eastern half of the region - though probably not like what we saw the other week around New Years.
Looking at that upper trough/upper low to move through the region and this is going to keep the cooler temperatures in the region for the weekend and into the beginning of the week. This influx of cooler air will be the coolest air of the season so far, and though I am not expecting that anybody will see single digit temperatures, I am expecting that some places will get down to the lower teens for overnight lows more than just one night. So it'll be a little below average over the weekend...which is something that we need to help break this pattern.
So here is what I am going to be doing for the afternoon. I am going to be trying to touch up the forecast for Thursday morning in the region. And then I am going to try to put some snow fall totals in the region. I am not going to have a 3.30 p.m. update, but I will have a 4.30 p.m. update. Extended forecasts will be revised around that time as well. This evening I will be doing some very "intense" forecasting on this system - though it will mainly consist of time and temp tweaking - so make sure that you check back for updates this evening because I'll be having a good number of them.
I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!
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