GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update

05 January 2012

Noon Update

In general things are trying to move smoothly a ridge of high pressure is trying to build into the region. Temperatures are running just a degree or two lower than what I had expected, but otherwise things are basically going to plan throughout the region. Flow in the upper winds is still out of the northwest this afternoon, making it feel a tad bit on the chilly side, but that will quickly change as tonight we’re going to watch a warm front push through the region and the high pressure ridge really build into the region.

This ridge of high pressure tomorrow is going to put temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s during the afternoon tomorrow. Some places might actually be able to hit 50 briefly but in general we’ll just go with upper 40’s for the highest temperatures in the western half of the region. Now this warm weather isn’t going to last long because an upper level trough and a low pressure will affect the region and bring in some normal temperatures towards the region.

Tomorrow afternoon, a low pressure system is going to develop and move north of the forecast area. This is going to keep us on the warm side ahead of the front, and then push our temperatures back down to average. The front isn’t going to have a lot of moisture associated with it, and when this front moves through the region, the only thing we’ll really see in the region will be some cloud cover – mainly tomorrow evening and overnight tomorrow.

The question still remains, though it is starting to become answered, is whether or not lake effect snow showers are going to develop behind the front. Regardless if the snow showers do show up, they will be light and fairly far apart, and temperatures won’t be good enough to support any accumulation. The winds will try to be there, but the temperature difference between the surface and 850-mb level isn’t going to be that extreme which means that more than likely the most that the eastern half of the region can expect will be “lake effect flurries” on Saturday. The rest of the region is going to remain dry as the front passes through.

The other interesting thing about this front is that it will not have a large temperature contrast behind it. Highs on Friday being in the 40’s and then on Saturday they will more than likely be back down in the mid 30’s for the region. This means that we’ll be around average for highs on Saturday and Sunday in the region.

Upper level trough finally pulls out of the region on Sunday and towards the start of the week, and then we’re going to see a little bit of riding occur in the region yet again as another high pressure makes its presence known. This ridging will occur ahead of our next system, which is going to be a little bit on the tricky side. An upper level trough is going to come out of the Plains this morning and this is going to head towards the region and move towards the region with a low pressure at its side. At the same time, a cut off upper level will move out from Texas and try to keep ahead of the upper level trough. The upper low will have a surface which is going to track towards the region and this low will head towards the region.

The next question is going to be whether or not the two lows will work together – if they get close enough – or if they will take turns affecting the region in a way. The other big question that is going to arise from the system will be how much it will effect the western half of the region and whether or not the cool air will reach it in time. Basically the eastern half of the region is going to be seeing precipitation from it, but how much will be rain and how much will be snow is still up for debate.

I am starting to think that this system is going to be almost a repeat of what we just saw a few days ago in the sense that we’ll see a little bit of rain, then some snow, and then cooler air filters in behind it. That seems to be the best the pattern can give us this afternoon. Again, further forecasting will be made on this system, but it is still about 7 days out. I thought about putting up Wednesday on the extended forecasts, but the models for Wednesday are a little iffy, mainly with the timing and the exact location, so I am going to hold off on putting Wednesday in the forecast until this evening.

Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast needed right now as things have generally not changed enough to make me alter the forecast that much.

I’ll have a full update coming up later around 3.30 p.m. so make sure that you check back for updates on that. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.