GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Evening Post

31 January 2012

Evening Post

The last day of January in the region, and what a way to end it, right? The region was ridiculously above average today in terms of temperatures and they aren’t going to drop that much tonight. What caused this warm weather today? We had a warm front push through the region last night and then a high pressure to the south and east of the region pushed up warmer air into the region behind the front, allowing for this warm air to push into the region. The temps also got assistance today with a low pressure centre moving down from the northern Plains, and this is helping that advection further. Before we dive into the weather for the remainder of the week, I am going to do something that I normally try to avoid: Long range forecasts.

What am I expecting for the month of February in the region? Simple, I am expecting that precip is going to be slightly above normal for the month of February. I am expecting a 60% chance that we’re going to be right on average for temperatures- mainly for the second half of the month - with a 30% chance that we’ll be above normal (mainly in the first half of this month) and then a 10% chance that we’ll be below normal (just for some added hope). My reasons for this are as follows: La Nina in the Pacific is still doing well, but it will gradually weaken over the course of the next few months. We’re still going to see the effects of the La Nina into Spring, but I am expecting that it will start playing less of a role in the regional weather over the course of February. To add to this, I am not expecting that the present weather pattern will change that much as the cool air mass is continuing to have some troubles moving into the right spot. Nonetheless, February should be (knock-on-wood) a bit of an improvement compared to January.

A cold front is going to move through the region late tonight and into tomorrow morning. This cold front is associated with the low pressure centre over the northern Plains and the low pressure - though remaining north of the region - will in fact head to the northern half of the Great Lakes region. With this low pressure, the cold front will drag across the region. Now I am not seeing the high pressure heading in the right direction, so that is going to prevent a whole lot of lift from taking place. But nonetheless, there will be enough low level moisture and some lift that we’re going to be seeing rain showers develop this evening and possible throughout the overnight in the western half of the region. The eastern half of the region is going to have to wait until midnight or later for those rain showers to make it into that area. The rain showers that do form tonight will be scattered and fairly light, though a few moderate clusters will find their way - especially around the Erie area towards sunrise.

The rain showers will pull out of the western half of the region tomorrow morning and that is going to allow for some calm weather to enter the region. Then we’re going to watch the rain showers in the eastern half of the region last through the early morning, and then gradually taper off before noon. In Buffalo, we might still hold onto a light lingering rain shower around one o’clock tomorrow afternoon, but generally the region will be fairly calm tomorrow afternoon. Now what about the temperatures?

The name of the cold front isn’t going to live up to its name right away as the high pressure that will hold the cool air will not arrive for another day or two. The high pressure is going to move into the southern Plains first, and then it will head up towards the region by Thursday afternoon/evening. This high pressure will finally put our temperatures in the region back to normal with highs in the mid to upper 30’s by the time the weekend rolls around. Before hand, we might watch a weak short wave push through the region, but mainly that will bring only a slight chance of snow showers that won’t do a whole lot. I haven’t put them in the forecast yet because I am not feeling confident with the course of the short wave, but regardless it isn’t a whole lot to be watching.

So is there any snow on the way? I have been watching the models this afternoon and they are in a world of disagreement when it comes to location, but they are in agreement with the existence of a low pressure system. If we go with the GFS, we get a very interesting low pressure centre that could actually give us some snow for the first time in what feels like forever. However, if we go with the ECMWF we get a floozy of a low. As of right now, I am having some question regarding the overall course of the low because it will be very sensitive when it comes to our part of the region. If the low tracks to the south, we could get some snow...if it tracks too far south, then we’ll get nothing. It takes a more northernly course, then we’ll see rain and if it goes too far northward, then we’ll see...nothing but some above normal temperatures. When will this system affect the region? For now, we’ll go with Monday, so it isn’t in the forecast period quite yet, however by tomorrow morning I am going to have some more information on it so I’ll give you a rundown on it.

I’ll keep you updated as always, and I’ll have revisions to the forecasts and updates coming up tomorrow morning starting at 4.30 A.M. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.