GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Evening Post

04 January 2012

Evening Post

Despite some snow showers in the eastern half of the region tonight - mainly in Buffalo - the region is going to be fairly calm tonight. A short wave of low pressure in the upper level is moving through the region right now, and this is just going to bring mainly clouds into the region. Lows tonight are going to hang on to the 20's overnight across the region, but again nothing very interesting happening in the region tonight.

High pressure building to the south of the region is going to usher in some warmer air into the region. This will push the upper level flow from the northwest towards the west tomorrow and then to the southwest by tomorrow night. This southernly advection will bring in some warmer weather in the region tomorrow and highs will get into the 40's for a high in the region tomorrow, and then on Friday that ridge really builds into the region and this will put temperatures above average in the mid to upper 40's throughout the region. But how long will this warm weather last?

Over to the west on Friday a low pressure will move through Ontario, dragging a cold front with it ahead of an upper level trough. The upper level trough and the cold front are going to push into the region over the weekend and this is going to push the temperatures in the region back down to average...basically right on average with highs in the mid 30's by the time saturday rolls around. Now here is the big question of the night...and this is really for the eastern half of the region: Will some lake effect snow develop out of this?

The cold front is not going to have much moisture with it and this front wont have much of a temperature contrast with it. The difference between the area ahead of the front and behind the front will only be about 10° and the 850-mb levels aren't going to have that much of a temperature difference with the surface. The wind will try to be there...but it wont be that strong. For now, I am still going to go out on a limb and keep snow showers in the forecast for the east, but I am not expecting that accumulation will come out of it, the snow showers will be light and fairly scattered about and too top it off...it might just be a degree or two too warm to support accumulations.

Upper level trough will chill out over the region over the weekend and into the start of the week, but this isn't going to last long as once again a high pressure ridge will develop in the region and like we've been seeing for the past...two months, we're going to go back into some above normal temperatures by Tuesday. But here we go now...something interesting is brewing for Thursday and Friday...

ECMWF and GFS are in some disagreement this evening with the exact path and the temperatures, but there is a very likely chance that the low pressure is going to exist. This is the other big question of the night, mainly for the west: Will snow come from this? This system is still a week away, so I am not going to do much work on it this evening, but I'll do more with it tomorrow morning, but here is what we can expect to see (in a short synopsis):

Upper level trough will move down from the northern Plains and into the central half of the Plains and lower Canada on Wednesday. This is going to spawn a surface low down in the Texas/Oklahoma area. The low pressure will quickly deepen and move up to the northeast. The question will be how far to the east this low pressure is going to move as oppose to how far north it will also make it. The other thing is going to be whether or not the cooler air will reach it in time. The low pressure might start off as rain, but could end in snow in the western half of the region. ECMWF brings the low into the region with rain ahead and then some mixing behind it - but then it cuts off after 180-hrs however the afterwards pattern strikes me as interesting as we might see a repeat of the weather we just saw a few days ago. The GFS takes the low a bit more to the east with the precip not arriving until after the cool air has arrived,

but the precip would be as heavy in the western half of the region. Regardless, it looks like the eastern half of the region will be getting something from it. Cooler air will also come out of this, and this could possibly put some places back down to about 10° for overnight Friday, but I am not going to make a solid call on any temps quite yet. As you can tell, there is some uncertainty at this point, remember this system is still about 7 days out, so I'll do a little bit more work with it tomorrow morning.

Otherwise, unsual quiet weather for the rest of the week and into the weekend despite the possibility of some light lake effect in the eastern half of the region over the weekend. Warm air on Friday and the normal temps over the weekend. Temperatures remain normal for the start of next week and then above normal temps...and then our next system. I'll have a full update coming up tomorrow morning, with forecast updates coming up tomorrow morning starting at 4.30 a.m. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.