GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Did We Skip Winter?

15 January 2012

Did We Skip Winter?

We do have another system on the way, but this one isn't going to bring snow...it is going to bring rain. We'll get a little snow from it in the east, but the west will get a few snow showers out of it and that is it. Lets go ahead and take a look at it, shall we (I will make this post brief because the information I gave yesterday hasn't changed much at all):

A low pressure centre will develop ahead of a deepening upper level trough that is forming in the Plains. This low pressure centre is going to track towards the region tonight and tomorrow, pushing a warm front through the region tomorrow. This warm front will push rain showers into the region - which will be steady at times - and despite the warm advection, the rain showers will actually keep temperatures in the lower 40's for tomorrow. The rain showers wont really arrive into the region until tomorrow afternoon.

Tomorrow night, rain showers in the region as that low pressure centre nears the region. Warm advection will keep the rain showers in the region overnight.

Tuesday, rain showers will continue to be likely in the morning in the eastern half of the region, but they will become widely scattered right around daybreak in the west. This is because a cold front will be nearing the region. The cold front is going to start to pass through the region late Tuesday morning and into the afternoon, causing temperatures to fall steadily throughout the afternoon in the west. This isn't going to mean snow though, because there will not be a whole lot of moisture wrap around with this low.

Tuesday night, last of the rain showers in the west will turn to snow showers. Cold front will push through the lakes, looking for a brief lake effect snow event to take place in the eastern half of the region. Western half of the region will actually see a few snow showers in the evening, but those will exit.

High pressure builds to the south of the region quickly on Wednesday, allowing for some cooler air to enter the region, but nothing that great. High pressure slides to the east, brings in warmer air into the region towards the end of the week.

Another low will stay to the north of the region over the weekend, allowing for more warmer air to enter the region. There will be some snow showers in the region, but those should turn over to rain by the weekend...I'll type more about that later this afternoon. I don't want to rush through that part of the update.

Ok, so because nothing has really changed in the region as far as the forecasts are concerned there will not be any updates to the forecast or site until about 5.00 p.m. this evening. There just isn't a whole lot more to type about with this system. If anything changes before that though, I will update you sooner, otherwise for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.