Change of Season

Some very active weather approaching the region, and for the first time this season it appears that this warm weather pattern is starting to get breached. Looking for a very active weather system to enter the region, brining in some cooler air into the region that will put us a few degrees below seasonal average. So lets take a look at this weather system for what its worth:

Right now, the genesis of this system is happening as that cut off low is developing down in Texas and that surface low pressure is starting to develop. The system is becoming rather organized. Rain showers are out and about in the eastern and northern half of Texas this afternoon and this is thanks to that low pressure system, and this is the weather that is going to head towards our region. At the same point right now, our upper level trough is starting to exit the region as a high pressure is going to slip to our south and clear things around. Now this high pressure will work against over the next day and a half.

Tomorrow, the weather starts to become a bit more interesting and more active. Our high pressure is going to slide to the south of the region, and its effects aren't going to be felt until tomorrow afternoon when slips towards the mid-Atlantic states. This is going to allow for warm advection to take place into the region, allowing for the upper levels to ridge and furthering the above normal temperatures. At the same time, this is going to actually help our Texas low get a little bit more moisture and energy before it starts moving. This low pressure though is going to become a little picky as it will be a closed low, which means that it is actually going to gradually weaken as it heads towards the region. So tomorrow we're going to see the main focus being with the Texas low.

Tomorrow night...the weather really becomes more interesting. An upper level trough is going to further develop in the Rockies during this period, with a high pressure on the northwestern edge and a low pressure out in the southwest section of the trough. The northern low - as we'll call it - will have a deep cold front and a modest warm front with it. This low pressure going to help enhance the ridge over the region, so we're going to go with mild temperatures overnight. In fact, the temperatures that we're going to see at this time will be the normal highs for this time of the year...not the lows...so some warm advection really doing its job in the region. Now this northern low pressure will begin to deepen during this time and we're going to watch the high pressure slip into the Rockies even more during this time.

Wednesday, the first half of Wednesday isn't going to be that hard to forecast for. We'll watch our Texas low pressure move into the middle Tennessee Valley and though it will gradually be weakening, it will still have a broad area of rain showers with it. this low pressure is going to try to stay ahead of that deep trough that will continue to dig into the region. The northern low is going to slip into the northern Plains and that is going to pull its cold front down across the Plains and start moving it towards the region - though at this point it will still be a day away. Now the second half of Wednesday is going to become a bit more tricky as this low pressure starts to veer a bit and head towards the NE instead of the NNE. For now, I am going to keep Fort Wayne, Toledo and even Detroit as dry for the late afternoon, while the rest of the region is going to have to keep an eye out for some rain showers that will begin to develop around this time. To make things more interesting, both the northern and Texas low are going to begin to work together in a way, as the northern low is going to start drawing some of the Texas' low energy. We're going to see warm advection really taking place during the afternoon Wednesday, despite the cloud cover, and highs will once again push into the upper 40's and lower 50's throughout the region. Where the tricky part of the forecast still remains is just how far to the west that low pressure will allow its precip to go. This will take us into the next period of the forecast,

Wednesday night, during the evening the weather is going to be soggy throughout the region. The main hinderence in the confidence level at this point is actually the exact location of that Texas low pressure centre. The Texas low will have started that turn, but the question will be will it have had done it soon enough to keep the western half of the region dry. I did keep Fort Wayne once again, but I am still trying to hold on to some spotty widely scattered rain showers in the Toledo and Detroit areas. I am still going to be keeping temperatures really mild throughout the region, so do not expect that number to flucuate much. What I am thinking is going to happen in the western half of the region is this: some widely scattered rain showers in the evening and before midnight, however after midnight that low pressure will become too far away from the western half of the region that I am expecting those precip chances will be out of the west by the midnight hours. I am going to allow for a brief break in the precip chances to occur in the western half of the region (Fort Wayne will have one regardless). Cleveland and places to the east will still hold on to those rain shower chances; actually, it will be during this time that the low pressure centre will be closest and the rain shower chances will be highest. Wednesday evening is going to be a tricky forecast, though not the worst, the devil is going to be in the details unfortunetly.

Thursday, this is when winter starts to arrive. With the upper level low from Texas weakening, it will actually start to become stuck in the flow from the upper trough. The Upper trough is going to be digging far into the Midwest during this time and this is good news for that northern Low pressure coming down from the northern Plains. This low pressure will have deepened further and it is going to really use that left over energy from the Texas low to its advantage. The cold front will enter the region in the morning for the western half of the region. This cold front is going to allow for some snow showers to develop both ahead, of the front, within the trough and behind the front. Highs on Thursday will occur in the morning and then the temperatures are going to gradually fall throughout the afternoon. And the snow showers will be around in the western half of the region. Temperatures are going to fall in the afternoon for the eastern half of the region as the cold front will make its way into that area by the late afternoon.

Thursday night, we're going to watch temperatures fall into the lower 20's and then into the teens as that front really makes its presense known. Watching as cooler air filters into the region, and then we'll be watching as a decent lake effect snow shower event will begin in the eastern half of the region. Upper level trough starts to enter the region, bringing clouds, flurries and cooler air into the region.

We'll go further into the weather for Thursday night and Friday later this evening.

I'll have another update coming up this evening, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.