GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Calm For Now, But a System Will Develop

05 January 2012

Calm For Now, But a System Will Develop

Another calm day in the region today as that short wave basically exited the region not that long ago. There is the possibility of some lingering snow showers in the eastern half of the region this morning - mainly around Buffalo - but those will be very widely scattered and light so I am not expecting any accumulation. To add to the unusually quiet weather in the region today, we're going to watch a high pressure build up to our south and this is going to push the upper level winds' flow from the northwest over to the west this afternoon. This will allow for some warm air to fill into the region from the high pressure and this will push our temperatures close to 40° in the majority of the region. But this isn't the warmest that it will get.

Tomorrow we're going to watch the ridge of high pressure really build up in the region and this is going to allow for warm advection to really take place. Highs tomorrow in the region are going to climb in the mid to upper 40's throughout the region, and there is a good chance that some places - mainly Fort Wayne and areas just to the west of Toledo - could see highs briefly touch 50° for a high tomorrow. So we'll be running a good 10-15° above average. But this isn't going to last that long as we're going to watch our next system get ready to enter the region.

A low pressure will cruise up to the north of the region, dragging a cold front with it ahead of an upper level trough. This system is a little strange though in the sense that it will not have that much moisture to work with. For places in the western half of the region, the only thing the front is going to do is put clouds in the region and some cooler temperatures...but not that cooler. The front will basically put the temperatures back to near average in the western half of the region on Saturday and Sunday. There are two questions this morning, and the first one applies to the eastern half of the region:

When the cold front moves through that area, again it wont have a lot of moisture to work with. Too add to the interesting physics of this front, it will not have a major temperature difference with it. The temperatures at the 850-mb level aren't going to be that much cooler than the surface temperatures...possibly about 10°C between surface at that level. The winds will try to be favourable, but it is going to be hard. Some lake effect snow showers might develop in the eastern half of the region over the weekend, but they will be light, few and apart. This is why the forecast reads "Widely scattered snow showers" instead of lake effect snow showers. There will not be much accumulation, at most the Erie and Buffalo areas will see is an inch...but highs are going to be in the mid 30's so the snow will have a hard time.

Upper level trough pulls out of the region yet again and then we're going to watch yet another ridge build briefly into the region towards the end of the forecast period, pushing our temperatures back up into the 40's possibly by the time Tuesday rolls around. But here is where the second question of the morning rolls in...for the whole region, but mainly the western half of the region...and this involves our next system.

Models this morning are in agreement of the following: On Wednesday an upper level trough is going to move into the Plains and with it will be a surface low pressure our north with a cold front. At the same time an upper level low with its associated surface low will move ahead of the upper trough and towards the region by Thursday. But here is where the questions arise: the path of this system. This system is still about 6-7 days out, so there is still time for things to come into more agreement and this is what I'll be working on throughout the morning. But the question with this system is going to be whether or not the cool air will make it in time when the southern Low comes to the region. The ECMWF and GFS show an eerie sign that perhaps the cool air will not have arrived in time when the system first reaches the region, but the GFS shows that the system will take more of an eastern course

and only the northern Low will be the one to effect us. The ECMWF takes the system right over the region and working in tandum with the northern Low as well. This system will be a close one...and we'll more than likely get a little bit of precip from it, although rain or snow is to be determined.

Behind this system will be some cooler air that will rush into the region from the northern Plains and this will put us possibly back into the temperatures that we saw a few days ago.

Again, we wont start seeing the effects of this system until Wednesday, which is one day past the forecast period. However, I will do some extra work on this system and I will add Wednesday to the extended forecasts for the Noon update, so make sure that you check back for that. Hopefully this system starts giving us an actual winter.

I'll keep you updated as always, I'll have a Noon Update here on the site, and my next Facebook update wont be until 3.30 p.m. this afternoon. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.