GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Calm for now, active weather on the way...

06 January 2012

Calm for now, active weather on the way...

The weather today in the region will be rather calm as that high pressure builds to our south, pushing the upper level flow into a ridge which will allow for southernly advection to take place throughout the region today. Highs are generally going to stay in the upper 40's, but a few places in the western half of the region might get up to 50° briefly this afternoon. Otherwise we'll just keep the temperatures where they are at. Skies will also be mostly clear, but this morning we could see a few high level clouds reach the region, but they will be thin and shouldn't effect the temperatures.

Cold front is still out to the west of the region,

however it'll pass through the region late tonight and that is going to cool the temperaturs down a little bit. Now this front doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with in the region - so this is going to be a quiet system. Some lake effect flurries and weak snow showers could develop tomorrow in the eastern half of the region with the passage of the front, but two things are working against it: A small temperature contrast and limited moisture.

Upper level trough moves through the region as well over the weekend and into Monday, this will try to keep the temperatures near average, but then once that trough moves out of the region we're going to watch another ridge build briefly into the region, possibly putting our temperatures back into the mid 40's by the time Wednesday rolls around. However there is another system that I am keeping an eye on and this one will be interesting.

A low pressure centre is going to develop in the southern Plains and then it will be trying to keep ahead of an upper level trough that is going to dig into the Plains on Wednesday. This trough will have a weaker low pressure of its own that will start work with the southern low, but I'll have to do more work on that. The southern low pressure will make a glancing blow past the region, however the cool air might not make it soon enough to be there when the system starts. So in parts of the region the system could off start with a little rain, but then it will turn over to snow. How much snow? Well as of now, I am not thinking it will be that much, and I am not going to worry about putting totals on it quite yet, the system is still about 6-7 days out.

ECMWF showing the weather for Thursday evening, notice the southern low pressure off the coast of the Atlantic at the same time the second low pressure effects our region. Notice the filtering of cooler air.

Cool air will filter in behind this system and we might end up seeing a repeat of the weather we saw last weekend. Possibly a degree or two cooler, but nonetheless it could be a repeat.

I'll type more about all this for the Noon Update, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.