GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Active weather on its way

09 January 2012

Active weather on its way

Weather across the region is going to get very active towards the end of the work week as we're going to be seeing a very active upper level wind pattern enter the region, introducing our first actual winter like weather...despite being about a month late.

An elongated upper level trough is extending from just west of the region into the Plains and into Texas this morning. This trough however is also part of the smaller trough that is in the region right now - keeping those clouds in the region right now, which might lead me to change today's forecast slightly - but this is going to be the start of our active weather.

Tonight, with the retreating upper level trough, a closed low is going to develop down in Texas, and this closed low will take a few hours to get organized and then it will start to develop its surface low.

Tomorrow, the same continues as the upper level low begins to slowly move out of Texas, although gradually picking up speed. This is going to allow for the surface low pressure to enter the Ozark region by late tomorrow afternoon. Our part of the region though will remain rather calm as an upper level ridge hangs over the region with the low pressure to the south and a mid-Atlantic high (the one that will actually affect us today) and this is going to push in warm air into the region. This is going to allow for highs on Tuesday to climb well above average once again.

Tomorrow night, the Texas low is going to push through the Ozarks and start to head towards the region. However the low is going to have some problem with its course, and it will start to turn to the northeast. This means that clouds are going to start to enter the region.

Wednesday and Wednesday night, the weather becomes very active as that Texas low starts to heads towards the New England from the south. This means that we're going to start seeing its effects - mainly in the late afternon for some - and this will only bring scattered rain showers in the west and perhaps some decent rain showers into the eastern half of the region. In the other side of the country, we're going to watch a high pressure slip into the northern Rockies, helping to enhance the upper level trough over in the western Plains and this is going to be the main feature of our cool weather on the way.

I do apologize for the short update, I'll have another update coming up around 7.30 a.m. this morning, where I'll give you a synopsis on what we can expect in the region for today through the end of the forecast period. I am runnning a little bit late this morning as not all of the charts I needed were ready. Forecasts will be revised throughout the morning, mainly to adjust times and temepratures...and possibly cloud cover here and there...so make sure you check back for those. My next Facebook update won't be until 3.30 p.m. this afternoon, but the site will be revised throughout the day. www.glweather.blogspot.com I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.