GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Above Average

30 January 2012

Above Average

Wow, January tried to enter like a cold month, but it will be leaving us with temperatures about 20-25 degrees above average. Waiting for the offical records to come out for this month, I am curious as to where this month ranks in terms of the warmest Januarys, it'll be some interesting results I'll tell you that much. But what are we going to see over the week? Well the weather will be surprisingly calm for this time of the year, and despite one system that will pass through tomorrow night, I decided to drop some of the other precip chances and just go with a single system.

Today, a surface high pressure is causing for a little bit of ridging to occur to our west, but generally the weather will be calm today. A warm front is to the southwest of the region, being blocked by that high pressure at the present time. However that high pressure will start to slide to the east through the course of today and that is going to allow for that rather long warm front to push through the region. The warm front will enter the region this evening and overnight tonight which is why most of us will see steady temperatures after about...4 p.m. or so this afternoon. Looks like our lows won't go down a whole lot with the influx of that warm air into the region. The high pressure and the warm front will allow for further warm air advection - with some moisture - to enter the region tonight.

Tomorrow, attached the warm front in the northern Plains will be a decent sized low pressure with a cold front trailing through the Midwest and Plains during the course of tomorrow. This cold front will be a little bit moisture deprived during its course towards the region, but with the influx of warm and moist air from that high pressure (which by Noon tomorrow will be centered over in the South Carolina/North Carolina area) we'll start to see some lift and warmer temperatures. Highs in the region tomorrow will be well above average, we're talking lower 50's! There is even a chance that I will up a few of those highs this afternoon depending on how I feel.

Tomorrow night, the cold front will begin to enter the region, and working with that low level moist air we're going to see rain showers develop. The rain showers will be spotty and they'll have some troubles filling in, but regardless they will be around. Looks like the majority of the rain showers are going to be light, so nothing too major in terms of rain fall totals. Could be a little bit of field flooding depending on how well the snow pack survives on Tuesday, but regardless I am not expecting a whole lot other than some rain showers in the region from this. The bulk of the rain showers will begin to develop during the evening hours, with the best happening mainly after midnight in the region. The cold front will be quick moving and should start exiting the region by the time the sun comes up on Wednesday.

Wednesday, the last of the rain showers will exit the eastern half of the region by Noon, and then we're going to see some lingering clouds - because it'll be February and that is how things work when it comes to cloud cover - however temperatures aren't going to be all that cool. High pressure will slip southward towards Texas at first, causing for our temperatures to remain a bit above average.

Through the latter part of the week, we're going to watch that high pressure actually attempt to move a bit eastward and then northeastward up towards the region, and that will finally cool us down and try to bring us all back to normal temperatures. Clouds will still be around, but depending on how strong that high becomes, I might actually drop some of the clouds in the forecast when I revise the forecasts this afternoon...but for now, we'll just go with cloudy skies through the course of the week and into the start of the weekend.

High pressure will be the dominating weather features in the region for the remainder of the forecast period after Wednesday morning.

Because I am not expecting a whole lot to change between now and Noon, this will be my only update until about 11.30 a.m. this morning. If things change drastically before then, naturally I will update you, otherwise it's going to be a calm forecasting week. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.