An area of low pressure will ride down the northwest flow of the 500-mb ridge. The low pressure will gradually weaken as it comes down through the northern Plains. Low pressure will have a warm front extending eastward, but it's cold front will become stationary tomorrow afternoon/evening. The low pressure will lift the warm front rhoguh the region tomorrow afternoon/evening and this will introduce a chance of rain and snow showers into the region. Models seemingly a little uncertain with the temperatures in the region ahead of the warm fronts passage, so for now will mainly go with a rain/snow mix in the region - with more snow possible towards the start of the system and then more rain likely closer to the warm front. The warm front will extend across the region through the eastern half by late tomorrow night, however I am expecting a break in the precip overnight Thursday after the front passes. Temperatures will gradually rise behind the warm front. The low pressure centre will then virtually stall out over lower Michigan and help to mess up the surface charts.
Friday morning, we'll watch a second area of low pressure roll down the northwest flow of the ridge and into the northern Plains. This area of low pressure will have a trailing cold front with it, however the front's exact location at this time will be a little questionable. The low pressure will mix with the stalled out low over lower Michigan and this will allow for a wave of precip to roll down through the northern Plains on Friday morning and head towards the region. The precip once again could be a rain/snow mix as the 540-mb temps will be right over the region in a nearly west-east fashion. The low pressures will then "merge" for lack of a better term, into a single centred low pressure system that will develop over Lake Erie on Friday afternoon. This is going to allow for some cooler air to brought down from the ridge in the Plains and have it thrusted into the region. Mixing will occur at this time in parts of the region as some of it will become all snow. However the question of how much left over precip will be available at this time is also looking a little on the questionable side.
Simple part of the forecast arises on Friday evening and into Friday night as that low pressure slides over upstate New York and pulls that cooler air over the lake. Right now, haven't spent much time looking at, however a lake effect snow event might be possible on Friday night and into Saturday in the typical snow belt areas. Further forecasting will be done on this. At the same time however, the upper level trough will make its presense known across the western halfof the region at this time as it will put cooler air into place for the west, and quite possibly for the region as whole.
Saturday, upper level trough starts to exit the region as an area of high pressure moves through the south. This will allow for warm advection to return into the region on Saturday afternoon as the the northwest flow of the ridge starts to show signs of yet another low pressure in the region. The lake effect snow in the eastern half of the region has a good chance of being done with briefly as that high will turn winds from the N-NNE to the SW. I will go with slightly above average highs on Saturday as that high pressure to the south looks to be creating a sharp ridge over the northern Plains.
Weather gets rather interesting for New Years Eve and New Years Day across the region as a surface low pressure develops in the Plains and extends its cold front down through the Plains and lifts further warm into the region. Looks like a decent shot at some precip, albeit rain or snow is still to be determined at this time. Cold front is becoming nice on the models, and this could be an interesting one with further cooler temperatures being placed into the region -- altough single digit temperatures looking very unlikely at this time. Further interest in this half of the forecast will be given this afternoon.
I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.
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