Our First Snow in the West...?

An unsettled next couple weather days are on the way for the region and we’re going to be seeing quite possibly the first snow accumulation, for some, for the first time this season. It wont be much and the chances are still sort of iffy. Lets go ahead and type about this system for a moment:

Hanging out down in the western Texas area this morning is an upper level low. This low has been stationary for the past few days, but now it is starting to move – weakening slightly – and will try to stay ahead of an upper level trough. Now this upper low will produce a surface low pressure that will stay to the south and east of the region.

Now here is where things are going to get tricky: Temperatures.

For the first few systems of the season, they can be iffy because normally the cool air isn’t permenantly in place yet. This means that there is flucations. A lows job is to pull polar air southward on its backside, and warm air northward on the east side. Typically we want to be on the northwest side of it – for more than just the air reasons. This system will stay to our south, but the big question will be whether it will be strong enough to compete with diurnal heating and pull that cool air down far enough to avoid a mix. Sounds simple enough, but highs are going to be on that border line. If you remember my rule from yesterday: 38° snow, 39° rain; we’ll be right on that edge. To add to insult, the precip shield will be bordering right on the edge of the forecast area.

The upper low will pull through the region, so pending it is good enough it will keep that cooler air in the region at the 850-mb level. The low will be off to the east and south so that will mean we’ll be on the cooler side of it.

The precip will begin late tomorrow night as the low pressure nears the region. We could start off with a rain/snow mix in the western half of the region, but I am expecting that by sunrise all of the precip in the east will be snow. How much snow, well that is still debatable right now as the intensity of the low is up for debate. It will be a fairly quick moving system for those of us in the western half of the region as most of the snow will be over with by Noon on Tuesday. For accumulations in the west, I went with generally 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation, though that might change. Highs on Tuesday will be above freezing, so how much of that snow will stick is a little uncertain because overnight lows on Monday will be in the lower 30’s.

The eastern half of the region is a completely different story and a bit more difficult. The low pressure will stay to the south and east of the western half, but the low will hook a turn to the northeast, which means it will either pull the shield closer or farther away from the eastern half of the region. For timing, well that is going to mean the difference between rain or snow. I went with snow for Erie because of the timing, but for Buffalo I did go with warmer temps and rain. I will be doing further and intense forecasting on this area throughout the morning.

So basically, this system will produce snow, but will a wintry mix throw itself in? That is a possibility in the west as that system pulls out and the diurnal heating kicks in, but if it does happen it wont be much and it wont last long at all.

So a figidity system on the way, the path of it isn’t that hard, but remember the temperatures will make everything difficult to an extent. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them, and I’ll try to have another post up by 8.00 a.m.