GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update

09 December 2011

Noon Update

The weather in the region may be quiet for most places right now, but this isn’t going to be the case in a little bit. The cold front is making its way into the region right now, close to the Fort Wayne area. The cold front may appear to be an end to the cloud cover and such, but that won’t really be the case this afternoon. The upper level trough is still a little bit further to the west.

Once the upper trough gets a bit closer and the front moves out a little further to the west, then that clearing will take place in the western half of the region…but still not so much for the eastern half of the region.

The cold front is going to approach the eastern half of the region late this afternoon, and what does that mean? Simple – lake effect time. Looking at the conditions that will be setting up for that half of the region:

Winds right now are coming out of the southwest which is mainly keeping those lake effect snow showers away from you guys and more so a little to the west of the Buffalo area this afternoon – although those are going to return here in a little bit as the winds start to shift. The snow showers are going to be mainly light and the temperatures around the surface are fidgeting around 32° so that will be hindering some of the snow accumulations.

Temperature differences over the lake are starting to rise, about 12°C difference between the 850-mb and surface temps. Low level lapse rates are also starting to climb a little bit as well, at 6°C/km right now over the central half of Lake Erie, that will probably rise to about 7 or so late this afternoon.

As the front passes through late this afternoon in the eastern half of the region, the winds are going to veer in from the west and that is actually going to turn the focus from Buffalo down to the Erie area where the lake effect snow will begin to take place in that area starting late this afternoon and through the evening. The snow showers will start to wind down in the eastern half of the region late tonight and just be some lingering snow flurries for that half of the region, but not before about 2-4 (locally 5) inches of snow falls in the Erie by tomorrow morning. So nothing out of the norm overnight tonight.

Ridge of high pressure builds up for the region tomorrow as a whole and by tomorrow night the entire region will be calm and clear, and a bit on the chilly side as cold advection takes place. Look for generally cooler weather to take us through tomorrow and tomorrow night, and then gradual warming on Sunday and Monday through the first half of the day Tuesday.

Now there a couple of other systems that I am keeping an eye out for towards the middle of next week and these two system are catching my attention, as well as another low pressure system which will effect the region towards the end of the week. I’ll have a little bit more information on this as I do further forecasting on it, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates I’ll have them for you as always. My next update will be around 3.30 p.m. this afternoon.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.