GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Near to a Few Records

05 December 2011

Near to a Few Records

Incase you haven’t looked outside yet or noticed…it’s raining across basically the entire region. No major changes needed to the forecasts right now as things are generally going to plan. There are some flood watches up for Toledo and Cleveland this morning, and this is in response to the already wet ground left behind from the other low we saw a few days ago. This system on its own is not enough to issue the watch, but with the saturated grounds from previous rains, expect that some of that field flooding and a little swelling in the rivers will occur.

As some fun information, this year is by far one of the wettest on record for the region. Cleveland shattered their old record by over 6-inches of rain, bumping the year 1990 (with 53.83 inches of precip) down to second place. Toledo is next, only needing 1.80 inches of rain to tie the old record which is the year 1950 with 47.84 inches of precip. There is a good chance that with the rain today and the next little bit of precip for Friday and Saturday morning, that Toledo will be within a grasp of breaking that record. Erie still needs about 9 ½ inches of precip to break the old record from 1977.

Now because the weather is going as planned this morning, I am going to repost the previous post. I’ll be updating those extended forecasts around 10.00 a.m. this morning, along with a brief update at that time. I’ll have a full update coming up around Noon. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always. Here is the repost:

It’ll be a rainy day across the region today as the front has basically stalled out over Ohio. This is going to allow for a few waves of low pressure to ride along it this morning. At the same time, a weak low pressure system is going to develop along this stationary front, and it will come up from the southern states this afternoon and move towards the region. This low will be quick moving and it will drag the front out of the region tonight and early tomorrow morning.

Now the low pressure system that passes through the region today will give us a final push for rain showers in the region. Towards the backside of this low pressure, though it’ll be weak, it might be able to pull in some cool air that could briefly change some of this lingering rain showers into snow showers late tonight, but it wont accumulate that much at all regardless of where in the region you are. This will be as that low pressure moves past the region along the upper level trough as it heads to New England.

The upper level trough is going to briefly allow for a high pressure out to our west to try to influence the region. Because it wont really be over the region, the places closest to the high (western half of the forecast region) will see some clearing of the skies tomorrow night, but the eastern half of the region will be farther away which means that the clearing won’t be as much. This high will retreat back to the west for a little bit as the upper level trough finally moves through the region…but this isn’t going to give us that long of a break.

The second low pressure that I was typing about yesterday that could give us some snow showers on Friday is looking like it wont even come that close to us anymore. But this doesn’t mean that we’re going to be done with the precip chances.

Once our upper level trough finally pushes through on Thursday morning, we’re going to watch a rather neat weather system set up in the region. An well defined upper level trough – courtesy of the upper low all the way in northern Ontario – will come down from the Plains late Thursday night and into Friday morning. This upper trough of low pressure is going to hold the 500-mbs at a nearly textbook pattern for a little bit. On the east side of the trough we can expect to see a shot at some snow showers which will get to us Friday afternoon and through the afternoon on Friday. The western half of the region is going to see this quick shot at snow showers, but the eastern half of the region might actually hang on to them longer in part from lake enchanced snow, but more on that bit later. Then the upper level trough passes over…and then the west side of the trough kicks in…the ridge.

(GFS look at Friday morning, notice the upper trough).

The ridge of high pressure is going to throw in some cooler weather into the region by Friday night and Saturday morning. This high pressure is going to keep the western half of the region rather cool. Look for highs on Saturday to be about 32° for a good portion of the west and then depending on the clearing that we see on Saturday will determine if places like Fort Wayne, Toledo and Detroit could see lows in the upper teens. The eastern half of the region might actually have to wait an extra day for this.

So a straight forward forecast in store for us. The only big thing will be the timing and the overall temps, but the systems are getting into place which is good. I’ll have another update coming up around 10.00 a.m. Extended forecasts will be revised throughout the day. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.