GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Low pressure/White Christmas?

12 December 2011

Low pressure/White Christmas?

Revising the forecasts this evening, there doesn’t seem to be many things that have changed since this morning. And will we have a white Christmas this year? Some earlier indications are promting that question tonight.

Here is what I am expecting will happen in the region over the next couple of days:

Upper level trough digs into the southern Rockies during the day tomorrow and by tomorrow night it will have kicked up a surface low pressure. This surface low pressure will push towards the western half of the Great Lakes region overnight on Tuesday night through Wednesday. This low pressure will have a trailing cold front with along with a preceeding warm front.

As the warm front nears the region on Wednesday, this will introduce the rain showers into the region. The warm advection ahead of the low will help cause this low pressure and seeing as how we’re going to be on the eastern side of the low…this mean that all our precip will be rain.

The low pressure will continue to hook off towards the U.P. of Michigan on Wednesday night and into Thursday and this is going to bring the cold front closer to the region. The cold front will be approaching the western half of the region and this cold front will start entering the region as early as late morning on Thursday. As this cold front pushes through the western half of the region on Thursday afternoon, it’ll clear the skies out of the western half of the region and allow a high pressure to develop.

For the eastern half of the region, however, the cold front will bring in cooler air over the lake waters and this might be enough to produce lake effect snow. Just how much I am still working on. The lingering snow showers in the east will last through the day Friday and then that high pressure will once again dominate the regional weather.

So this generally a simple forecast for the region as a whole, with just the timing being the only thing that needs to be monitored. Unforunetly, the bulk of the precip that we’re going to see in the region will be rain, not snow.

So how will our Christmas work this year? Well, looking mainly at some mid range models this evening and they are sort of hinting at an area of low pressure pulling a cold front across the region on Monday, 19 December/Tuesday 20 December. Now this system is still a week away and things might change on it, but it isn’t looking very promising in being all snow. Now if the system works in our favor, it will give us enough snow that will allow for it to stick around just long enough to possibly be around for Christmas. Now this could change, and knowing our luck it could be a rain/snow event. For those of you who read the post this morning, you’ll remember me typing about the past 11 Christmas’ and what some of them brought.

KTOL (high°/low° precip)
2010 29/23 snow
2009 44/33 rain
2008 23/15 snow
2007 32/19 cloudy
2006 40/28 rain
2005 35/32 rain/snow
2004 16/-11 cloudy
2003 30/24 T of snow
2002 32/28 T of snow
2001 24/18 snow
2000 17/-5 clear

11 year avg 29/19 snow

This is the past 11 Christmas’ for Toledo, and tomorrow morning I will post all six of the forecast cities for you. If you were to look at it, you’d see that historically the bulk of the region sees precip of some kind, normally snow. Although there have been a few Christmas’ where it rained and poured rain, the majority of the time the region will see snow. 2005, 2006 and 2009 where not so good however as those years did give us rain for the Christmas holiday, however 2000 and 2004 were very nice with cool temperatures and snow. Last year wasn’t that bad either, it did snow…but didn’t accumulate that much.

But with this pressure system I am watching, looks like it’ll get us before the Christmas holiday and this could either give us rain…or if we’re lucky it’ll give us snow. Tomorrow morning I’ll have more information on it, so be sure to check back tomorrow morning at 5.30 a.m. for Updates and revised extended forecasts. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.