GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Low on its way

13 December 2011

Low on its way

Highs pressure off to our east is starting to lose its dominance this morning as clouds are seeping into the region a little earlier than I had expected. Cloud cover is over Fort Wayne, Toledo and Detroit right now and it will gradually make its way towards Cleveland throughout the morning and early afternoon. Highs today will be about a degree or two lower then originally expected as those clouds will hinder, so we’ll just go with upper 30’s for a high today, and maybe a few places could hit 40° this afternoon.

Today we’re going to watch as an upper level trough digs into the southern Rockies today, and this will help a ridge centre itself over the region late tonight. This will then allow for some of that cloud cover and preceeding rain showers to move closer into the region.

Tomorrow morning we’re going to watch as the upper level trough kicks up a surface low pressure down in the Plains. This low pressure will quickly deepen and then rush up towards the region, brining a preceeding warm front and a trailing cold front into the region.

Tomorrow morning that warm front will be near to the region and this is going to help the temperatures rise, but it will also help bring the rain showers into the region by early tomorrow morning. Rain showers will continue through the morning tomorrow and early afternoon, and there could be a break once the warm front gets far enough to the north, but this break wont last long.

The low pressure centre will then pass off to the west, barely, of Chicago and this will keep us on the rain side of the low pressure. The cold front will start to approach the region late tomorrow night and into the morning Thursday. This cold front will then near the region and by noon tomorrow it will start to pass through the western half of the region. This will allow the temperatures to fall in the afternoon Thursday for the western half of the region. At the same time, it will also work on clearing out those rain showers so that by Thursday night the rain showers will have exited the western half of the region.

For the eastern half of the region, the cold front will not have passed through until the evening hours on Thursday and this wont clear out the precip like it will in the west. This front will actually bring some cooler temperatures over the Lake waters and this could help in brining some lake effect snow into the eastern half of the region. The snow wont be that heavy, I am not expecting a big lake effect event, but a few lake enchanced snow showers will be likely in the eastern half of the region.

A high pressure attempts to build into the region by Thursday night/Friday night and this will divide the region once again in the terms of weather. Clear in the west…some snow in the east.

Now there is another low pressure system that I am working on for Monday and Tuesday (next week) and this one will be interesting to watch and it will effect our Christmas weather. Will it be rain or snow? That is a question that I am working on. And I will have more information on that for the 7.30 a.m. Update. I am a running a little late this morning, so I’ll type about the Christmas weather on the 7.30 a.m. so be sure to check the site for that. My next Facebook update will be at 3.30 p.m.

I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.