GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Here we go again...

23 December 2011

Here we go again...

A little bit to type about this morning but mainly for the long term forecast period after Sunday night. Right now, things are generally quiet in the region with some breezy conditions, cool temperatures and cloudy skies from Fort Wayne to Buffalo. Those clouds will start to break up a little bit late this afternoon and this evening as an area of high pressure begins to influence the western half of the region.

A cold front along with its associated upper level trough will fly through the region on Sunday, producing a little snow in the western half of the region, but do not get too excited because temperatures will still be in the mid to upper 30’s, so not much accumulation taking place. The eastern half of the region will pick up some lake effect once the front passes through on Sunday night and that will give you guys about an inch of snow.

A high pressure builds up across the region on Monday and this will keep the majority of the region calm and clear – except for the east where some lingering clouds will try to hold on there.

System I am watching this morning and will be following closely later this evening is one that bares a striking resemblence to what we had a few days earlier. Now the models are still a little confused with this system, so I am not going to make any real solid calls on it yet this afternoon, but here is what I am thinking will happen on Monday and Tuesday:

An upper level low pressure caught in the southern Plains will begin to move ahead of an upper level trough. This upper low will produce a surface low pressure which will track off to the south and east of the region. The low will have a decent sized precip shield with it, and a rain/snow mix is looking possible on Tuesday – although how much snow and how much rain there will be is something that I am still working on as temperatures will be tricky. System clears out and then a series of little short waves pester the region.

Sounds simple right? Eh, not quite. Here is where things get tricky…the upper low. The trough is nearly guarenteed at this point, but the question is going to focus on that pesky upper low as it moves out of the Plains. If it moves out too quickly – which some models are hinting at – then it will spin out way to the south and get crushed by the upper trough. Others are hinting at the upper low doing what I mentioned a paragraph earlier. However, as of now, I am going to keep the upper low moving with the upper trough on Monday and Tuesday which does mean that we’ll be seeing some precip from it.

Still waiting for the 12Z models to finish updating…which knowing Friday’s it will be a while. So there will not be an afternoon update, however, around 6.00 p.m. this evening I am going to give you the rundown on what we can expect over the forecast period and what might possibly lay ahead in the future (weather future that is). I am going to take some time to analyze the daylights out of the new model runs, so again by this evening I am expecting that I’ll have a very good understanding of what will happen. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.