GREAT LAKES WEATHER: First Winter Like System of the Season...?

24 December 2011

First Winter Like System of the Season...?

Some lingering clouds out and about this morning in the region, but those are going to start dissapating as the day goes on. A high pressure to our south is going to keep the weather rather calm today across the region, but the calm isn’t going to last too long as we have a quick system on the way.

An upper level trough will come down from the northern Plains tomorrow, and with it will be some clouds and snow flurries for the region.

Now the flurries aren’t going to be much and they’ll be few and apart, but they’ll be around tomorrow. The upper trough will cut through the region and then move into the eastern half of the region tomorrow night. This will pull some cooler air over the lake waters and produce a minor lake effect snow event in the Erie and southern Buffalo areas tomorrow night, however snow fall accumulations will generally be under an inch. The high pressure returns to the region tomorrow afternoon and calms the region down once more with some slightly cooler air and some clear skies.

The high will be in effect Monday as well in the region, but then we’re going to turn our focus to possibly the first “winter”-like system of the season. Let’s back track a little bit: Right now, down in the southern Rockie/El Paso, TX area we have an upper level low this morning. This upper low is going to hang out down there for today and tomorrow and then it will start to move. The upper low will move ahead of a trough (not the one we’re going to see tomorrow, but a different trough) and this low will try to scoot ahead of it.

This upper low will produce a surface low pressure to its right and that surface low will begin to work the moisture into precipitation that will effect the region.

The upper level trough will then push the weakening upper low over the region by late Monday night or Tuesday morning.

Although the low pressure centre will stay to our south and east, it might have enough advection taking place that the precip sheild will enter the region. If we’re lucky, this low will pull enough cool air around it over the warm advection that we might be seeing some snow showers develop from this. It is looking that is going to happen without a doubt, but here is the down side to it all…the temperatures.

Now the warmest I’ve ever seen it snow was 41.3° at the surface, normally though my rule of thumb is “38° snow, 39° rain”, when it comes to winter systems like this. We’re going to be right at the edge of that, so this is going to make the precip forecasts a bit tricky. The accumulations with this system will be very low…most of us will be seeing no more than a ½ inch of snow…sad right, but better than nothing. This will be Monday night through Tuesday morning, whereas on Tuesday the highs will be around 40° in the region.

What I am curious to look more into this morning will be the possibility of a little wintry mix – seeing as how we’ll be that close to that rule. So it’ll be an interesting system nonetheless.

Another high pressure builds in quickly through the region on Tuesday afternoon/evening and this is going to keep the regional weather calm for Wednesday. But, we could have yet another system get us right around the New Years Eve time, though it might be a repeat of what we’re about to see, so an “eh” on the snow chances for that one…this system I haven’t looked into much because I am focused with the one that we’ll be seeing in a few days.

Again, further forecasting will be done today, mainly for the Monday night through Tuesday morning period of the forecasts – so if any changes are going to be made to the forecast today, that is where they’ll be. Now this post is quite possibly the only post for the day as I will be doing a lot of forecasting today. If anything changes drastically between now and tomorrow morning, then naturally I will update you all. But just keep an eye on those extended forecasts, and if there are any question feel free to send me an email at albertson_timmy@yahoo.com and I’ll reply to those within a few hours. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.