GREAT LAKES WEATHER: First Accumulating Snow in the West

26 December 2011

First Accumulating Snow in the West

High pressure to our south this morning will help keep the weather calm for the most part during the day today. There are some lingering clouds in the region in all places but Fort Wayne, but as that high pressure moves into the region it’ll clear those clouds out and we’ll go for a clear majority of the daylight.

Upper level low pressure is starting to move out of the southern Plains this morning and it will try to keep ahead of the upper level trough coming through the northern Rockies this morning. The upper low however isn’t going to make it and the trough will slam into the back of it. But that is to be expected. The upper low will kick up a surface low pressure within the next few hours and this surface low will deepen and start to quickly move up to the northeast.

The surface low is actually going to stay just off to the east and south of the region, but that is actually where we want to be with systems like this. It puts us on the snow side...well mostly. Remember those temps I was typing about yesterdaty morning? Well they will end up playing a minor part in the forecast, so lets go ahead and start with the western half of the region and what they’ll be expecting for tonight and tomorrow:

Fort Wayne, Toledo and Detroit:

The system will start to move into the region and this is going to help bring in some brief warm air advection after midnight tonight. The precip will start off as a mix between rain/snow showers as the first part of the system enter the region late tonight. Expect no general accumulations tonight as the temps will still be a tad bit too warm, that is until late tonight.

By tomorrow morning, the low will finally pull the cool air around it and push it southward, thus turning the rain/snow showers into all snow showers. This means that by tomorrow morning – early – we’ll start seeing the last of the rain and the introduction of the snow showers. The snow showers will be steady at times, and they’ll be off and on – not so much scattered. The snow showers will be light to moderate, and highs will be barely above freezing, so accumulation is looking possible. Some of the snow will melt on contact, so we can expect accumulations to be light…only around 1-2 inches at the best in the western half of the region.

The system clears out for you guys and a brief high will set up and drop those temps down in the lower 20’s…maybe upper teens – I’ll be doing some work on that later this morning.

For Cleveland and Erie:

Snow will be heaviest for you guys, but not much more than the west. The rain/snow mix wont be as likely for you guys in the fact the cool air will already be in place once the precip arrives. The snow will arrive very light tonight, so we’ll just call it tomorrow morning and those snow showers will be partially lake enhanced, but it’ll be more the system and not the lake. Snow showers carry you guys through the morning and early afternoon, and then the snow becomes scattered as the system hooks a northeast turn towards New England.

About 2-3 inches Cleveland, 1-3 inches in Erie, but in both places a few heavier snow showers could throw themselves into the mix and produce locally up to about 4-inches of snow by the time all is said and done on Tuesday night.

Cooler air sets in for you guys and that will be about until the next system moves in Friday.

Buffalo:

You guys got the short end of the stick with this system not wanting to give up the cool air around the city. Look for the rain to develop tomorrow and this is going to transition into snow, but it will do so too late. Highs will be in the upper 30’s tomorrow and wont be that chilly tomorrow night so I am going to keep accumulations for you guys light and only at around an inch.

I’ll keep you updated on this system and the other weather as always, it should be a fun one. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.