Christmas weather can be foung towards the end of the post. But first the present weather: Looking at the 500-mb winds this evening, it doesn’t take much to see where the excitement is. Upper level trough trying to dig in as well as it can into the southern Rockies right now and it shall continue to do so throughout the night.
High pressure just off to our east is giving us one last push of calm weather, though its influence is starting to greatly dwindle. A stationary front is extending from the Wisconsin area down through the Plains and into Kansas right now, and waves of low pressure are starting to ride along it producing rain showers. Upper level winds ride right over the area from the Plains, allowing for waves of low pressure to ride along it, these waves of low pressure are headed towards the region so do expect some rain showers to be likely late tonight across the western half of the region. Tomorrow morning the upper level trough will finally muster up enough energy that it’ll produce a surface low pressure centre around the Oklahoma panhandle. This low pressure will deepen quickly and ride the winds towards the region. With the low will be a semi-deformed warm front and a nice trailing cold front.
Warm advection ahead of the low will take place and that is going to push our highs into the 40’s for the bulk of the region. The only hinderence will be the clouds, which will make it hard for places to reach 50° for a high tomorrow. The rain showers will generally be steady tomorrow, there will be a few breaks here and there, but again be sure to take the umbrella or rain jacket with you tomorrow no matter where in the region you’ll be.
The rain showers aren’t really going to arrive in the Cleveland area until tomorrow morning, say about 7.00 a.m. give or take an hour, and they wont really make it into the eastern half of the region until about mid morning tomorrow. But once the rain drops start falling…they aren’t really going to go anywhere. Had this low pressure formed about 200-miles to the south, then we’d be typing about a snow event…but our fate will not allow that, so we’re back to the rain. But do not let this discourage you if you like the snow, because some places will actually be getting a little snow from this system.
On Thursday, we’re going to watch as that cold front approaches the western half of the region. This will give those rain showers one final push early Thursday morning. The high temperatures in the western half of the region will more than likely occur before Noon…maybe 1.00 p.m. Thursday, and they’ll start to fall as that front passes through. With the passage of that cold front, look for cooler air to creep in along with clearer skies as a high pressure starts to build in from the west. But how abou the east?
Well that cold front will approach you guys by Thursday evening and that is going to attempt the same process as the west. But there will be a catch: lake enchanced snow. This front will drag cooler temps at the 850-mb level over the warmer lake waters. The differnce creates a little instability, added with some moisture from a quick short wave, and thus lake effect snow after midnight on Thursday night. Now this event wont be much as a high pressure will keep this system on its best (worst for you snow lovers – as I am one) behavior. High pressure in control for the majority of the weekend, with a few exceptions, but I’ll type more about that in a later post.
This evening, I am sure the big question is simply: Will we have a white Christmas? With Christmas only 11.5 forecasting days away, the answer is trying to become a bit clearer. First we look at the historical Christmas’ in the region over the past 11 years (refer to the table of numbers I have attached)
For Christmas 2011, my prediction is still a little up in the air right now as the models are in agreement, yet disagreeing at the same time. We can expect to see some unsettled weather over the pre-Christmas week and one of my focus is a cold front that will track through the region on Monday, 19 December. This cold front will either bring us rain or snow…the 850-mb temps this evening are still all over the place which isn’t where I want to be with a forecast. I’ll do further analysis on it this evening. 23 December also looks interesting as yet another low pressure system could give us a decent chance of some snow…again, I’ll do further forecasting on this system this evening.
I’ll have more information in the morning on both of the systems, so I’ll be able to give you a much clearer picture on the weather. I’ll have another full update along with revised forecasts coming up tomorrow morning at 5.30 a.m. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.
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