GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Evening Post/Snow

08 December 2011

Evening Post/Snow

The forecasts have been made and now all I can do is sit back and wait for the system to arrive. The snow showers are making their way around the trough as I type and these snow showers are generally light and scattered. Now doesn’t mean the system will be boring…hardly…in retrospect, Buffalo compared to other places in the region…you’re going to get hit with a decent amount of lake effect between tomorrow morning and Saturday morning…about 5-9 inches of solid snow will fall in the Buffalo area, and some places might see about 10-11 inches. Nothing unusual, but the only thing to type about at this point.

This evening the upper level trough of low pressure is doing well as it is entering the northern Plains with some good energy to its name. Ahead of this trough of low pressure is a slow moving, nearly stationary, front which is really waiting for another push of energy to get it going. That push is going to come in the form of our upper level trough. The trough of low pressure is actually following about 12-hours behind the front which is to be expected.

The cold front is going to move through the western half of the region tomorrow morning. And this front is going to have limited moisture to work with (seening as how its origin is from the northern Plains) and this isn’t going to give the Fort Wayne and Toledo area much in the way of snow. About a half inch of snow could fall overnight tonight and through the morning tomorrow, maybe an inch in some places that are lucky. The cold front is going to be a bit weird tomorrow and it will allow for a few lingering snow showers as the upper trough nears the region, but those are going to be mainly cleared out of the region by mid afternoon tomorrow. Expect a quick decrease of clouds in the western half of the region tomorrow evening as a nice sized high pressure begins to dominate the regional weather.

The cold front will start to make its way towards the eastern half of the region tomorrow morning and that is going to really kick up those snow showers along the lake front. The snow will start to fall as early as late tonight in the eastern half of the region, but the fun snow will not show up until tomorrow morning as that cold front approaches with its upper trough following close behind. 850-mb temps are in a prime spot and the temperatures associated with the trough at the surface will be in the right location as well, coupled with the warmer waters of the lake and BAM…lake effect.

The 5-9 (locally 10-11) inches of snow isn’t going to fall all at once…it will be dragged out over a period of 24-30 some hours in that half of the region. The heaviest of it will fall tomorrow as the upper trough approaches, but that should leave ample time to shovel here and there to make life easier.

While the Erie and Buffalo area get their snow tomorrow afternoon and overnight Friday, the western half of the region will be seeing the weather from a different perspective…clear skies. The high pressure and its ridge will start to build into the western half of the region tomorrow afternoon and this is going to clear out those skies. With the approaching high pressure from the west and the clear skies…radiant cooling will take over and those temps tomorrow night are going to fall…down in the middle teens for an overnight low Friday night. Saturday morning wont be much warmer as highs will only be in the mid to upper 20’s for a good portion of the region.

(SREF look at the 500-mb heights for Friday night).

Saturday afternoon the upper level low will have passed through the region…you know what that means? The lake effect snow machine will shut off and the skies in the eastern half of the region will start to break along with the snow showers. The skies will clear and we can go for a calm and clear Saturday ngiht through Monday evening in the eastern half of the region (tomorrow night through Monday night in the western half). Temperatures will also start to gradually warm up as the high pressure slides off to the east.

I’ll keep you updated as always, and expect updates tomorrow morning to be a bit on the frequent side as the lake effect snow “event” begins to take place. Remember, this system isn’t anything ususual, however it is the first of the season – hence the intense focus. I’ll have updates and more coming up tomorrow morning starting at 4.30 a.m. so be sure to check back for those both on the Facebook page on the site. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.