GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Evening Post

01 December 2011

Evening Post

No major changes to the forecasts this evening as the majority of things are generally going to plan. Because of this I will simply repost the previous for the Evening Post tonight. I'll have a full update coming up tomorrow morning at 6.00 a.m. and I'll have revised extended forecasts coming up tomorrow morning at 5.30 a.m. So be sure to check back for that. Here is the repost:

Some partially active weather these next couple of days. Tomorrow morning and early afternoon we’re going to watch a week cold front move through the region. This cold front will introduce clouds into the region and possibly some snow showers in the parts of the region as it moves through. But for tonight, calm weather as that high pressure slowly starts to head out of the region.

Now remember, the chances for snow showers in the region (minus Detroit) are very small, and I am expecting that if they do show up then it will be very, very widely scattered.

High pressure builds up into the region tomorrow afternoon and Saturday, but this high pressure will not overstay its welcome. We’ll watch it move quickly out of the region as an advancing trough of low pressure enters the Plains on Saturday night.

This trough of low pressure will allow for a surface low pressure to develop in the central Plains on Saturday. This low pressure, though not very strong, will be under the close influence of this upper level trough. The low pressure will race off towards the region, bringing a trailing cold front along with it. Ahead of the front will be some warm advection so we can expect that temperatures on Sunday will be rather warm compared to what we’ve been seeing. This doesn’t mean it will be a nice day, because along with this southernly advection comes a rise of the moisture into the region.

This influx of the moisture will allow for rain showers to develop ahead of and along the advancing front. The low pressure, though moving quickly, will start to head up to the north and this will slow the advacement of the front down rather noticably on Sunday night/Monday morning.

(The NOGAPS model look for Monday night/Tuesday morning).

As the front slows down, this will help in keeping the rain showers in the region, and with the front of the upper trough slowling down as well, its no wonder why I will be keeping the rain showers in the forecast for the majority of the day Monday.

A second wave on the upper level trough will push the trough of low pressure forward on Monday night/Tuesday. This will kick up a decent sized surface low pressure down in the southeastern states. Earlier this morning, the low pressure centre was something that I was focusing on and expecting that it could possibly affect the regio (hence why I kept some precip chances in the forecast through Tuesday) but as of the latest model runs I am expecting that this surface low will remain off to the east – barely – of the region and head more towards the New England area. New England area hasn’t had a good low in a few weeks so they are overdue.

Otherwise, as this trough of low pressure swings through the region, we’ll see the front and its associated waves of low pressure move out of the region. This will pull the precip – which will turn to some snow showers – away from the region and we can expect to see some cloudy weather. Clouds associated with the eastern passage of the low pressure centre over towards New England.

Otherwise…nothing much going on in the region. I’ll be tweaking the extended a little bit this evening, but I am not expecting that I will be making any noticable changes to the forecast this evening.

I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.