The weather across the region today will start off calm, but then it’ll get a little active more so this afternoon. A moisture deprived upper trough is going to swing down from then midwest this morning and enter the region. This is going to kick up some snow showers in the region, but the snow showers wont be all that heavy. In fact, I am not expecting much in the way of accumulation this afternoon either because those snow flakes will be small and the temperatures will be barely above 32° for a high in most places in the region. A high pressure will build up in the south tomorrow and this is going to add a little warm advection into the region tomorrow. This will, however, keep the weather in the region fairly calm for Sunday and Sunday night as our next system will not have ventured to us yet.
A cold front, with its associated low in Canada, will migrate towards the region by Monday. This front will make for a tricky forecast as temperatures at the 850-mb level will be barely above 0°. This front is going to slide through the western half of the region on Monday, but then it’ll stall out just to the east of the region. This will allow for continuous waves of low pressure to ride along it and this will give us those rain shwoers and possibly a few snow shower chances in the region for the beginning of the week. Now because the front will be so close and those temperatures are going to be a little low, overnight forecasts for Monday will be very interesting as some mixing might occur. Sadly though, most of this will be rain.
A weakening upper low comes out of the southern Plains with its associated low pressure centre and this will ride along the stationary front, eventually moving it. The section of the front ahead of the low will become a warm front and this will bring warm advection back into the region and turn all of the precip in to rain for Tuesday afternoon and overnight Tuesday.
The low pressure centre is going to cut right through the region, however we may end up being too close to it for those snow showers – which means that the majority of the precip that we’re going to see will unfortunetly be rain. Here is the forecast gets really tricky – which makes it all the more fun – the cool air will wrap around the low and try to catch up with the backside of the low. This means that the precip on the backside is going to have a chance to mix briefly with snow. The only problem will be is that the cool air might not make it in time to turn the remaining rain showers into snow showers behind the low.
(GFS look at the system for Wednesday afternoon, differing in moisture compared to the other models).If we’re holding out for a chance of snow with this system, it will be Wednesday morning and early Wednesday afternoon that we should keep an eye on because that is where the mixing might occur. Even if it happens, it wont be much. I give the possibility of snow from this system a 4 on a scale of 1 to 10.
The low pressure will drag a cold front through the region, but once again a high pressure will develop in the south and this is going to allow for warm advection to take place once again. The weather will remain calm, but it will be slightly above normal in terms of temperature.
Do not be discouraged, because we’re going to have one more chance of snow showers before Christmas. 23 December, it is looking like a low pressure will pass to the north of the region, dragging a cold front with it. I’ll do further forecasting on this throughout the day. Now because of all the forecasting I will be doing, this will probably be the only post until this evening, but on the site I’ll be revising those extended forecasts throughout the day. I apologize in advance for the inconvience. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!
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