GREAT LAKES WEATHER: A Busy Weather Day for All

19 December 2011

A Busy Weather Day for All

High pressure off to the south of the region and moving eastward has caused for some warm advection in the region. At the same time, a low pressure off to the north and west of the region will drag its cold front into the region later today. This front will stall out just to the south of the region and this will bring waves of low pressure that will ride along it and affect the region. An active weather week is in store for us, and there are some new indictations this morning that the system I was typing about yesterday morning, will bring the whole region snow for Christmas.

Once the front become stationary to the south of the region, we’re going to start watching our upper level low pressure move out of the southern Rockies this afternoon and start to weaken a little bit. On a side note, this upper level low and its surface low is producing a blizzard down in New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.

This low will not give us that type of weather as the warm air in the region will help to keep this lows advection warm as well. Looking for mainly rain showers likely as our precip from this first system.

Low pressure centre pushes the stationary front back into the region as a warm front tomorrow and this is where the bulk of the rain showers will occur.

Low pressure centre finally pushes through the region on Wednesday, and it appears that the cool air will not make it in time to turn these rain showers into snow showers. Now this isn’t to discourage you as we have yet another system on the way.

Looking at the models this morning, they are in agreement of a system that I was typing about yesterday morning that could effect the region. Enter, a low pressure system that will pass just off to our south – which is where we want to be – and this low will pull air from a high pressure over Quebec and slide it over the warm advection of the low and we could get a little snow on Christmas Eve.

I am going to be doing a lot of forecasting this morning, mainly for the forecasting period between Thursday and Saturday so do make sure that you check back for updates throughout the morning. There will not be a 7.30 a.m. post this morning because of all the forecasting – but the forecasts will be updated again this morning around 7.30 a.m. If you have any holiday travel forecast requests, go ahead and email me them because I’ll be forecasting basically all morning.

My next Facebook update will be at 4.00 p.m. this afternoon, so make sure that you keep on the site for updates which I’ll have throughout the day. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.