GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Another System,

11 December 2011

Another System,

The weather for the today and tomorrow will be fairly calm as the high pressure will still be dominating the regional weather. The high pressure is now sliding off to the east of the region and this is going to slowly introduce some warm advection into the region over the next couple of days. This isn’t going to make it warm-warm, but it will put us with temperatures that around average or possibly a degree or two above. The low pressure will develop and move towards the region, brining its trailing cold front through the region possibly as early as Thursday.

Taking a look at the models this morning, it isn’t hard to figure out where the main focus of the forecasts will be. We’re going to watch an upper level trough dig through the Rockies and emerge in the Plains by late Tuesday night. As of right now, still a little question as to where exactly the low’s centre will develop, only by a small margin though, but for now we’re going to keep at the OK/TX panhandle. The low pressure will quickly deepen and then head towards the region on Wednesday, brining a preceding warm front with it and a trailing cold front.

(ECMWF look at the weather for Thursday night).

As we’ve become accustomed too these past few months, the prime local for snow would be on the northeast edge of the low…this isn’t going to happen. The low pressure will take a more westerly course which is going to put us on none other than the rain side of this low pressure. This doesn’t mean that we’re not going to see any snow from this system, we probably will – especialy in the east where a lake effect snow event may occur – but more on that later.

For now, the low pressure will begin to head towards the region and this will introduce the clouds and rain showers into the region. The models are fairly consistant with keeping the rain out of the forecast realm until at least Wednesday afternoon, though the other big question is going to be how quickly the rain will spread to the east.

Warm advection will take place, naturally, ahead of the low pressure system and this is going to put our highs in the mid to upper 40’s on both Wednesday and Thursday for a good chunk of the region. This isn’t going to come free though as these highs will happen with rain showers in the region. How heavy the rain showers will be, I am still determining.

The system will be relatively quick in terms of its influence, as a high pressure behind it will make sure that this low pressure moves. The cold front will approach the region on Thursday, more so towards the afternoon. This cold front will pull the majority of the rain showers away with it, and that will start to clear out the skies as well as lowering our temperatures. Fort Wayne might actually see the passage of the front in the afternoon Thursday which means that highs will occur around the Noontime hour, instead of the late afternoon.

Cold front fully pushes through the region by Friday and this could possibly introduce another round of lake effect in the eastern half of the region.

Just how “clear cut” the rain showers will be in association with the front will be something that I am going to monitor as any lingering precip behind the front may end up being snow showers. Hence why some of you this morning have a few chances for snow showers your extended forecast towards the end of the forecasting period. I did go with possible snow showers in the east in response to the possibility of lake effect snow showers in the eastern half of the region due to the passage of the front.

The high pressure builds in behind the front, and just where this low will be is up for debate as well, but not much, either way it will dominate the regional weather for the western half of the region for Friday and possibly Saturday.

I’ll be working on this throughout the morning, so those extended forecasts will be periodically revised, so make sure you check the site for those. Also, due to the calmness of the weather, there will be no Post until 4.00 p.m. this afternoon – so all the updates will be forecasts revisions unless something changes dramatically which I am not expecting will happen. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.