GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Active Week for Weather

18 December 2011

Active Week for Weather

A high pressure in the southern states this morning will attempt to keep the regional weather calm today. There are some lingering snow flurries and clouds in the region, but that high pressure will clear the western half of the region out by the late morning and the eastern half of the region will still hold on to some of those flurries and clouds this afternoon.

High pressure to our south will begin to slide eastward this evening as a cold front moves down from the Plains. This cold front will pass through the western half of the region and then pass just to the south of the eastern half of the region before it becomes basically quasi-stationary. This will allow for a few waves of low pressure to ride along it and introduce some rain showers into the region. This will also allow for some warm advection to take place in the region. The stalling of the front will happen tomorrow evening.

Down in the southern Rockies is an upper level low that hasn’t moved at all since Friday. This upper low though is going to start weakening and then head towards the region starting tomorrow afternoon. This upper low, though weakening, will allow for a low pressure centre to develop along the southern end of the stationary front down in the southern Plains. This low will aid in slowing down the front once it enters the region. With the low pressure centre developing, it will start to move up towards the region.

The low pressure will turn the section of the front ahead of it into a warm front, and this warm front is going to slowly slide back to the north of the region. This is going to allow for rain showers to redevelop Tuesday evening. There will be a little bit of cool air riding along the northern edge of the warm front late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, and this is going to allow for a little bit of that rain to mix with snow, but in general this system will be 95% rain.

Warm front slides north of the region on Wednesday, thus allowing for the low pressure centre to enter the region. Here is where the rain showers will be most likely. The low is going to pass right through the region, so we’ll remain on the warm edge of it. This also means that we’re going to miss the brunt of the cold front, but not to worry, the cool air will find its way in.

On Wednesday night the backside of the low will be in the region. The cool air more than likely wont really make it in time, so the bulk of the precip on the backside will remain rain. There is a chance that some of it will mix late, but in general expect no accumulations if we get any snow from it. The chance of this system giving any snow in the region will be a 30% - mainly for the east.

Warm advection will try to take place in the region briefly, but then an upper trough is going to swing down from the northern Plains. This upper trough will bring some unsettled weather into the region for Thursday night/Friday. How unsettled? Well, it will be more clouds than anything, but this system will be cool enough that of the precip it does produce – it will likely be snow. As this system works into the region, cool air will be behind it and some snow showers will be possible in the region. In fact, a bit of a lake effect event might even take place Friday nigh in the eastern half of the region so that is something that I will be monitoring. Cool air seeps in from behind the trough as an area of high pressure attempts to build close to the region.

(CMC look at the weather for Thursday night)

If this system produces snow, which is looking possible, it wont be a snow storm or anything crazy, it’ll more than likely give us a dusting (like what we saw yesterday in the region). But it could be good enough to give us some what of a white Christmas. For now, the odds of this system producing snow in the region – I give it a 60%.

I’ll be working on those extended forecasts throughout the day, mainly for the latter half of the forecasting period. There will not be a 10.00 a.m., but I’ll have a post coming up around 3.30 or 4.00 p.m. this afternoon. I’ll keep you updated, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.