GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Update

27 November 2011

Update

Really the only changes made to the extended forecasts was the start of the rain fall on Tuesday. What we’ll be seeing is a low pressure develop to our south in the southeastern states along with a developing upper level low pressure system. The surface low pressure will make a near beeline to the north on Tuesday and this is going to introduce those rain showers into the region.

Now this low pressure has a very good chance of undergoing occlusion on Tuesday night and this means that the chances for snow showers are looking a little better. However, before I go into a little detail about that, at this point I am not expecting that the snow showers will accumulate much at all, possibly only a dusting. More forecasting on that will be made this evening. But here is some detail about it so you know what I am looking at.

Tomorrow afternoon a surface low pressure will develop as an upper level low begins to develop quickly in the southern states. This upper level low will be the product of a long trough that extends from the upper Great Lakes down to the location where the low will be developing. This surface low pressure will, as mentioned a few moments ago, quickly move up towards the region bringing the second round of rain showers with it on Monday night.

These rain showers will become about as likely as they could be on Tuesday as the rain shield enters the region ahead of a retreating cold air mass and approaching warm air mass. This is going to put us a degree or two warmer on Tuesday than we’ll be tomorrow. Regardless, it wont make a difference much as the winds will be a little gusty on Tuesday so it might actually feel a degree or two cooler. Anyways, low pressure centre begins to near the region on Tuesday evening and this is when the weather will once again get interesting throughout the region.

As we see the backside of this low pressure push through the Cleveland and Erie area, this will cool the air mass behind it and the 850-mb temps will near 0°C which is good enough to support some snow fall as the surface temperatures will be close to the freezing mark as well. At times, the temperatures might actually dip a little bit below freezing which might be able to support a little snow accumulation of about a dusting on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will mainly for the western half of the region and into the Cleveland area, this where the best chaces of snow fall will be – between Fort Wayne and Cleveland and up to Detroit.

Then on Wednesday evening a high pressure moves in as the low pressure exits and we’ll go back to calm weather…but cooler weather nontheless.

Right now the trickiest part of the forecast is that portion of Tuesday where determining just how much of that rain will switch to snow. And we also have another quick system on the horizon for Thursday night and Friday, but I’ll work more on that later.

So I’ll be updating those extended forecasts throughout the evening tonight so be sure to check those out. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.