GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Rain Switching To Snow

29 November 2011

Rain Switching To Snow

The trickiest thing for the forecast over the next 18-hours or so is going to be the wording. Lets go straight ahead to the present weather in the region right now:

Rain showers being reported in Fort Wayne, Toledo, Detroit and Cleveland. Right now this is the main area that I am focusing on. Actually, really my attention is turning to central Indiana where those rain showers are starting to switch over to snow showers at this point. But more on that in a little bit.

Surface low pressure chugging along right now through the state of Ohio with an intensity of 1000-mbs this afternoon. It is the head of an occluded front which extends back down in the western Kentucky where another smaller centre of low pressure is at 1007-mbs (as of the 15z times). The upper level low is still making its presence known as it passes just behind the surface low.

Precipitation on the back side of this system is still holding out nicely, but it’s widely scattered. This where the snow showers are going to start to transition (from south to north) along this somewhat wide band of widely scattered rain showers extending from the centre of the low down through western Kentucky. This will happen gradually throughout the afternoon. As of right now, the only place close to the region reporting anything other than rain is Lafayette, Indiana who is reporting sleet.

When these rain showers make the transition in the western half of the region starting within the next hour or so, we’re also going to watch the precipitation move out of the region, save for a few heavy bands yet to develop. The heaviest of the snow, as mentioned all of yesterday and this morning, will stay well off to the west of the region and only affect north central Indiana and into south central Michigan.

Our part of the Great Lakes region will only be seeing the edge of this snow making system which is why I have my expected snow fall totals a little low. The only place I might raise them would be a ½ inch for the Fort Wayne metro area, otherwise the Toledo area and Detroit area will generally see about a ½ inch, Fort Wayne will see an inch.

High pressure is going to build in from the west tomorrow afternoon and places from Fort Wayne to western Cleveland will begin to see a gradual decrease in the clouds for the afternoon and into the evening. Look for lows tomorrow night to be rather chilly with places like Fort Wayne and Toledo getting down around 20° for an overnight low.

Otherwise things looking calm despite a quick, weak trough of low pressure that’ll push through the region Thursday night and into Friday morning in the region. This isn’t to do much other than produce some clouds in the region and maybe a quick snow flurry in the Detroit area.

So for the remainder of the day today in the region: Rain showers in the Fort Wayne area will start to turn over the snow showers over the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. The snow showers in the Fort Wayne area will completely win over the lingering precipitation and possibly produce of an inch of accumulation by tomorrow morning. Toledo area will still hold on to the rain showers throughout the afternoon today and late this afternoon. Rain showers will start to mix with snow showers late this evening and into the midnight hours and the snow showers will win out for the lingering precipitation after midnight tonight in the Toledo and Detroit areas.

I’ll keep you updated as always, and I’ll have another complete update on both the site and on Facebook around 3.30 p.m. this afternoon so make sure you check back for that. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.