GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Evening Post

28 November 2011

Evening Post

A well developed surface low along with its upper level

low will be moving into the region late tonight and tomorrow morning. This is going to introduce the rain showers into the region…right now actually and those rain showers are going to last throughout the overnight and into the day tomorrow. Rain fall will be around an inch in the western half of the region and this has promted some flood watches for the above mentioned. In simple terms…it will be rainy for the next 24 hours.

As mentioned, the surface low pressure is moving through Kentucky this evening and it will continue to makes its due north course towards the region. This is mainly go to be a rain event…if it was January it’d be snow, but it’s not January so its not all snow.

The only chance for snow showers that we’ll be seeing will happen in the western half of the region as the low pressure swings through the region and pulls off to the northeast. This transitioning is going to be rather sensitative to the temps (a bit more than usual). This transition into snow showers is going to happen in our part of the region as the precip begins to exit. So when the turnover does happen…it’ll be happening towards the end of the system, so we’re not really going to be seeing a whole lot of snow in the region. The majority of the snow will stay way off to the west. The best that we can expect in the western half of the region at this point is a mere dusting, although if Fort Wayne is lucky they might be picking up a quarter inch of the snow. With the snow happening towards the end of the system, what is going to happen before it? Rain naturally.

Flood watches and some warnings went up across the western half of the region this afternoon and they continue to be expanded ever slowl slightly. These watches are mainly going to be in response to the already saturated ground left behind from the previous rains. With about an inch of rain possible in the western half of the region, it will take that much to produce some small flooding in the fields and some typical swelling of the rivers in the usual locations. This will be more bark than bite, but rain showers will be likely throughout the day tomorrow.

Then the flurries happens tomorrow night and into Wednesday morning. Then early Wednesday afternoon an area of high pressure begins to build into the region and that will clear us out by the evening hours for just about the entire region. Thursday morning we’ll be a calm and then Thursday afternoon and into the evening the clouds slowly begin to return in the region and then we can expect to see a brief upper level trough push through the region with a weak surface low pressure. This will bring in some widely scattered snow showers (possibly a mix of rain at times, still need to do a bit more forecasting on that) and then we’ll watch another high pressure build into the region.

Here is where the weather will get rather interesting – atleast according to the way things are looking. Earlier today I was doing some forecasting for the weekend and into the beginning of next week, and looks like we could have another low pressure system on its way for Monday. Now, this system wont be anything unusual and what form of precip it will bring I am still working on, I’ll have more information ont his tomorrow morning…but this system is still about 6 ½ days out (if it gets us at all).

So a rainy night tonight and day tomorrow and then the last bit of this system will turn over to snow showers and we could see a dusting in most places in the westerm half of the region. Calm weather for the day Thursday, brief system Friday…high pressure over the first half of the weekend and then another possible low pressure system for the start of the week.

I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! I’ll have a full update coming up tomorrow morning at 6.00 a.m. with revised extended forecasts around 5.30 a.m. tomorrow morning.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.