GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Trying

17 April 2011

Trying

Their scattered, their forming, and their small...mass hysteria, evacuations, batten down the hatches...end of the world. Not really, you can tell its been a slow weather day. But we are starting to see these rain showers appear on the radar, now I am thinking that most of them are still light and probably evaporating before they reach the ground. At this point, the rain shower development will be rather slow, but it is going to happen tonight and those chances for rain showers will become increasingly likely as times goes on.

This evening we're going to see a front pass through the region tonight. This front will bring in those rain showers for the region. Seeing as how it is a somewhat disorganized minx, the chances for rain showers are going to stick around for the next couple days. But we'll get to that in a minute. So tonight is a system part one. Increasing clouds across the region, and those scattered rain showers are going to develop across the southwest part of the region. Fort Wayne and Toledo are going to see them first and then Detroit...followed by Cleveland and then Erie and Buffalo (who is actually getting snow right now) and then Green Bay. Granted that order might change a bit, but most of you get the point by now that rain showers and some mixing early tomorrow morning will be possible through a bulk of the region.

Tomorrow, that front is going to slide southwards through the state of Ohio and Indiana and link up with a second front which is going to come out of the low pressure down in the Plain's which I am watching develop as I type this. This front will sort of stall out down in Missouri and through Tennessee and just hang around for a day in that area. Things are going to get better for the ducks in the area who love the rain. Weather humor, isn't it just great. My credibility is slipping with every comment I make.

Tomorrow night, that front is going to become a warm front (seeing as how the warm air will be making the move rather than the cold air) and that is really going to introduce those rain showers to the area. First off, this wont really happen until late Monday night...Tuesday morning to be more exact. This will give a brief break in the area for no rain showers, but that break will be very short so it will be hard to work its time in. The default with this will be the high pressure that is going to set up over the region in Michigan. It will be weak enough to allow those rain showers into the area, but it'll be strong enough to block those rain showers from going to far north.

Detroit, Tuesday morning is where most of my forecast troubles are coming up from. That high pressure is going to be very close to blocking those rain showers Monday night and Tuesday morning, so that is posing a problem for us. So of anybody here in the region, Detroit and Toledo will see the highest frequency for updated forecasts for the next day.

At the same time on Tuesday morning, the low pressure (owner of this warm front) is really going to get a bit intense rather quickly. Its going to start off slowly but then it is going to pick up in intensity. I am actually going to be expecting a 7-10 millibar drop in pressure over 24 hours from this system...not extreme, but enough to show that this is going to be a system that will effect no matter where in the region it goes. The low will then quickly head northeast towards the central part of Michigan again, and this is when I expect the highest chance of rain showers this week. Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning across the region.

So if you were able to follow this, I know it is hard to explain in words, so I am going to work on some graphics and post them for the evening update.

Basically chance of rain showers tonight, not so much tomorrow afternoon, and then the rain shower chances return tomorrow evening and will last through the morning Thursday. I'll have more coming up for the evening update in just a bit, including some graphics. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.