GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Tricky forecast

24 April 2011

Tricky forecast

Today's forecast will be a bit tricky for some spots of the region, especially in Toledo where they are too close to recieve "possible" but they are too far away to recieve "likely" when typing about the rain showers. What I am seeing right now on the radar is what appears to be a break in the rain showers this morning over towards the Fort Wayne area, however those rain showers will return this afternoon. I am expecting that Fort Wayne will see the break last from late this morning until sometime around the late afternoon.

The system that is being watched is a cold front that is going to stall out over central Ohio and run from the southwest to the northeast from Indiana on up to the Erie/Buffalo area. What this means is that waves of rain showers and such are going to travel along the front. At this point, the section of the front that is effecting us is a cold front, however that has since slowed down quite a bit and I am just waiting for the next chart update from the NWS to see if that front has become stationary (not enough time to check the station plots to see).

With the location of the front that will stall out, that means that Cleveland will be sort of in the prime for these rain showers. Now, this stationary front will fluctuate throughout the day and then it will actually move back northwards as a warm front sometime tomorrow, and when it does that...we got us some good chances for rain for a few days. However before tomorrow, the fluctuation of the stationary front will really determine who gets rain showers today and tonight...hence why everybody has some high chances for precip, though not everybody will see as many rain showers as the next.

The big thing today will just be those little light rain showers that will come and go in times, and most of them probably wont drop any measurable precip, however they will be there enough for us to notice them.

Back to Toledo, I am expecting that the more southwestern locations around the NW Ohio will see a brief break in the rain showers this morning, however the more north and east you go, the less chance you're going to see of that break. But whether you get the break or not, the rain showers at least until this afternoon will be light and have some time in between them...so it wont be a washout for those of you Easter Egg hunters. So for the Toledo, development over Indiana this morning will be very important to whether or not you'll be seeing scattered rain showers for the whole day, or if you'll have that quick break late this morning.

Now how about the week, eh? It will be anything but dry. I do have some places in the extended forecasts that have some high precip chances that I will more than likely crop up or down a bit this afternoon depending on what the new models say, but from what it looks like...it will be rainy. The stationary front will move back northward, and then we're going to watch rain shower after rain showers roll along that, followed by a cold front that will take its time in getting to us, so that will be something that is going to give us a recipe for rain showers and even thunderstorms.

Checking with the SPC, they do actually have a good portion of the region from Fort Wayne to Erie under a slight risk for strong storms on the day Wednesday, so that will be something that I will have to keep an eye on for you, and see what comes from that. Looks like as that cold front moves through the area, they're thinking that will work well with that warm and moist air left over from the warm front...so, a chance that I am not surprised they would issue, not like I expect anything too extreme to come from it at this point.

So, rainy week all thanks to that stationary front which will slowly become a warm front tomorrow and move through the area...and then a cold front which will take its time showing up. I will more than likely be going over those extended forecasts again this afternoon like I did yesterday to see if I cant narrow some of those rain chances and timing down a bit.

Today, mostly for the placs between Fort Wayne and Erie, it wont hurt to keep an eye on that radar (located with the daily forecasts) and make sure that you dont get a caught in any of those rain showers. We could see a brief break in Toledo later this afternoon and early this afternoon, however I am expecting that rain showers will return overnight tonight, if not a little bit sooner for the area, but for now it is looking like those rain showers wont really return until late tonight for Fort Wayne and Toledo and possibly Detroit and Cleveland. So this afternoon, I will give you a fairly accurate time on when I expect them to return.

I'll keep you updated as always, and remember that I will be revising those extended forecast yet again this afternoon and I'll try to get those times narrowed down. Stationary front will make the timing for the Toledo area a little difficult today, so that will be something that I am going to see if I can get head on today. I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.